Technical analysis by dgfacpe about Symbol PAXG on 12/14/2025

Gold rose $101.80 or 2.42% this week, briefly touching around $4353 on Friday before closing at $4299.87. It's worth noting that this rally didn't occur during a typical period of heightened risk aversion, but rather in an environment of recovering risk appetite, primarily driven by a broad weakening of the US dollar. As investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's future policy path, high-yield assets generally rebounded, while the dollar weakened, and gold benefited in tandem. Gold prices surged this week, approaching historical highs again, as market expectations rose that cooling inflation and slowing economic activity would force the Fed to further cut interest rates. The broad-based weakening of the dollar, coupled with a shift in the interest rate outlook, provided solid support for gold prices. Although the approaching year-end holidays may amplify short-term volatility, the medium-term upward logic for gold remains intact, given the expectation of interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and the unbroken technical trend. Looking ahead to next week, a flurry of US macroeconomic data will be released, with employment and inflation remaining the market focus. S&P Global will release its preliminary December PMI figures, and the US will also release October retail sales data and the November non-farm payroll report (including some supplementary October data). The US will also release its latest CPI data and initial jobless claims. Analysts point out that because these key data releases occur after the Fed's decision, rather than before, coupled with the approaching year-end holidays and decreased market liquidity, short-term price volatility may be significantly amplified. If the data continues to show signs of economic and employment weakness, the probability of the dollar remaining weak until the end of the year is high. The market has already priced in at least two Fed rate cuts, and coupled with a weaker dollar and continued central bank gold purchases, these factors may drive the upward trend in gold prices into 2026. Regarding the interest rate path, policymakers expect one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. Powell emphasized at the press conference that policymakers are striving to strike a balance between suppressing inflation and avoiding unnecessary shocks to the labor market, and clearly stated that rate hikes are not currently under discussion. Although official guidance is relatively cautious, the market interpretation is more dovish. Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to implement at least two more interest rate cuts in 2026, a factor that is suppressing the dollar and boosting gold. Analysts summarize that, supported by multiple factors including expectations of rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and continued central bank gold purchases, the medium- to long-term upward logic for gold remains valid, with short-term fluctuations depending more on data releases and holiday liquidity changes. Gold Price Trend Analysis: With half a month left until the end of 2025, 4353 is likely the high for this month; a new high is not expected at this time. Although the weekly chart shows a large bullish candle, Friday's sharp drop was followed by a rapid rebound, indicating continued bullish strength. Key support is around 4260, a key level for next week's market direction; above this level, there will be strong upward movement, while a break below will turn the market bearish. Short-term resistance is around 4320, the second-highest point in the US session, which is also close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level; then there's Friday's high and the historical high area. I believe the probability of breaking the historical high is low. Gold prices plunged from their highs on Friday, which was understandable given their proximity to historical highs. So, how should we position ourselves for gold next week after this decline? The 4-hour chart for gold remains relatively bullish, but strong resistance and selling pressure persist, ultimately causing gold to retreat from its highs. Next week, the key level to watch is the resistance around 4340, the 4-hour chart's actual high. If it holds above 4340, gold may enter a new large-range consolidation phase, with support around 4360. Gold is likely to trade within this large range at the beginning of the week, followed by the release of Tuesday's non-farm payroll data, Thursday's CPI data, and Friday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision to see if a rate hike will occur. With numerous data releases next week, market volatility is likely to be high. However, given the current easing environment, pullbacks still present buying opportunities. In summary, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold next Monday is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4340-4350, while the key support level is 4260-4265. Please keep up with the pace of the market.Short Selling Strategy: Sell gold in batches around 4340-4345, with a target of 4320-4300, and a further target of 4280 if it breaks through. Long Selling Strategy: Buy gold in batches around 4275-4280, with a target of 4305-4320, and a further target of 4340 if it breaks through.My friend, Christmas is just around the corner, and we've made a substantial profit during this trading period. Listen, December will also see many news events, potentially making it an even more lucrative time. However, without the right methods, you won't make money. If you want to make money, follow me. 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