Technical analysis by WavePoint_FX about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (12/14/2025)

1. Momentum Weekly (W1): Weekly momentum is approaching the overbought zone. There is a high probability that in the coming week, W1 momentum will enter the overbought area and start showing signs of a bearish reversal. Daily (D1): D1 momentum is currently in the overbought zone and preparing to turn down. We need confirmation from a clear bearish D1 candle. Once confirmed, the market is likely to enter a corrective move lasting approximately 4–5 days. H4: H4 momentum has already turned bearish. However, it still needs around 2–3 more H4 candles to reach the oversold zone, indicating that short-term downside momentum remains intact. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Weekly Timeframe (W1) On the weekly chart, wave X (purple) appears to be in its final phase. Price is currently trading near the base of wave W, suggesting a high probability that this structure is forming a flat correction. Key characteristics of a flat pattern: - Price can retrace back to the origin of wave W. - It may even exceed the W low/high and create a marginal new extreme. - However, this breakout is typically limited before price reverses to complete wave Y. In the current context, weekly momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. Therefore, the possibility of one final upward push in wave X cannot be ruled out before a larger decline begins. Daily Timeframe (D1) On the daily chart, wave X (purple) is developing as an ABC structure. At present: - The red wave C has already completed a 5-wave internal structure. - Price is now trading within the green wave 5 of wave C. With D1 momentum already in the overbought zone, there is a high probability that green wave 5 is nearing completion. Once this wave ends, price is expected to decline to form wave Y. However, an important caution remains: - D1 momentum has not yet confirmed a bearish reversal. - Therefore, attempting to catch the exact top of wave X carries risk. - As discussed on the weekly timeframe, flat corrections can allow price to equal or slightly exceed the wave W level before reversing. H4 Timeframe Looking more closely at the H4 structure: - The 5-wave sequence (1–2–3–4–5 in green) within the red wave C has completed. - Wave 5 reached its projected target near 4334, after which price started to decline sharply. H4 momentum still requires 2–3 candles to reach oversold conditions, suggesting: - The current bearish leg still has room to extend. - The most probable scenario is a continuation lower toward the POC zone (green line) around 4215 – 4187, followed by a corrective bounce. If this scenario unfolds: - The current decline is likely forming wave 1 down of a new 5-wave structure for wave Y. - The subsequent recovery would be wave 2, typically unfolding as an ABC corrective move. - This wave 2 rally would provide a high-probability sell opportunity, especially if H4 momentum rebounds into the overbought zone again. 3. Key Notes & Risk Awareness One critical point to emphasize: - Weekly momentum is preparing to enter the overbought zone and potentially reverse. - Daily momentum is already overbought. - This momentum confluence suggests that the coming decline could be more extended, aiming to push weekly momentum back toward oversold conditions. In practice, weekly momentum often requires multiple oscillations (commonly around three reversals) to complete a full corrective cycle. Therefore: - Patience is essential during this phase. - Avoid prematurely adopting a long-term bullish bias. - Always wait for price action confirmation. This analysis represents a directional warning and scenario planning only. All expectations must be confirmed by real-time price behavior. 4. Conclusion For the upcoming week, the primary bias favors a bearish corrective phase. Detailed trading plans (entries, stop loss, and targets) will be updated daily as new price data becomes available.Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 15, 2025 1. Momentum Daily (D1): Daily momentum is currently showing a constructive signal, suggesting that a reversal may be approaching. However, this does not confirm an immediate price decline. Instead, it indicates that D1 momentum is weakening, which often precedes a trend transition rather than an instant reversal. H4: H4 momentum is now preparing to turn upward from the oversold zone. This is not an ideal signal in the current context, as we are evaluating a potential wave top. The H4 momentum is indirectly warning that the bullish move may not be finished yet on the H4 timeframe, and price could continue higher before a proper reversal develops. H1: H1 momentum is currently compressed in the overbought zone. While a short-term pullback on H1 is expected, the compression of momentum suggests that the upside structure has not fully completed, and the rally may still extend. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily Timeframe (D1) On the daily chart, price remains within a Flat corrective structure (W–X–Y). As D1 momentum continues to contract and prepares for a potential reversal, the top of wave X appears to be very close. At present, price is trading around the yellow wave 3 high, which is also the typical termination zone for wave X in a Flat structure. Once wave X is completed, we expect a decline toward the purple wave W area to finalize wave Y. H4 Timeframe On H4, price was in the green wave 5 during yesterday’s session. Following the bearish move on Friday, we initially expected that a top had formed. However, current H4 momentum is preparing to turn bullish, which means we must remain cautious. If H4 momentum confirms a bullish reversal, the upward move is likely to continue, especially considering that price is now rising again and approaching the previous high as the new session opens. H1 Timeframe On H1, yesterday’s primary count was a red 1–2–3–4–5 structure, as marked on the chart. However, due to the new signals coming from H4 momentum, a second wave-count scenario must be considered. Scenario 1 (original plan): The key condition is that price does not break above 4353. If H4 momentum reaches the overbought zone and then confirms a bearish reversal, we would expect a 5-wave decline to unfold. In this case, the 4334 zone is considered an appropriate area for the current corrective rally to terminate, and price behavior at this level will be closely monitored. Scenario 2 (alternative plan): If price continues higher and develops a black 1–2–3–4–5 structure, then with H4 momentum entering the overbought zone: - Price may equal or exceed the 4353 high - The market may then form either a Flat correction for black wave 4, or this advance could represent an extended black wave 5 3. Interim Conclusion - At this stage, the final wave structure has not yet been fully confirmed. Therefore: - Additional confirmation from price action and H4 momentum is required - It is important to avoid committing to a rigid trading plan too early while the structure remains incomplete I will continue to update the analysis as soon as clearer technical and wave confirmations appear.Market Update With price pushing up into the current high area, the most reasonable scenario is that the market is forming a Flat ABC corrective structure. On the H1 timeframe, the strong bearish candle that has just closed suggests that wave B has likely completed, and price is now moving into wave C to the downside. At the current price location, this is considered a good area to enter a swing sell, trading wave C with the expectation that price will move back toward the base of the structure. One imperfect factor in this setup is that H1 momentum is currently in the oversold zone. However, trading is always about decision-making under non-perfect conditions. Based on the wave structure and overall context, I have entered a sell position at the current zone. Trade Plan: Sell Zone: 4330 – 4333 Stop Loss: 4350 Take Profit 1: 4296 Take Profit 2: 4260