Technical analysis by dgfacpe about Symbol PAXG on 11/27/2025

Gold prices retreated during Thursday's Asian session, primarily reflecting improved market risk appetite and reduced safe-haven demand amid thin holiday trading. As market expectations for another Fed rate cut in December intensified, coupled with rising hopes for regional peace negotiations, global market sentiment turned optimistic, prompting some funds to flow from gold to risk assets. This week's US economic data was mixed, but overall did not change the market's assessment of the Fed's policy path. Data from the US Commerce Department showed that durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, a significant slowdown from the previous 3.0%, but still higher than the market forecast of 0.3%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.6%, indicating continued resilience within the manufacturing sector. Gold prices retreated slightly after previous gains, mainly influenced by improved market risk appetite and rising expectations for peace negotiations. However, strong expectations of a Fed rate cut in December put pressure on the dollar, continuing to support gold. While various US economic data showed mixed results, they did not shake the market's judgment on a rate cut. Recent speeches by several Federal Reserve officials have clearly shifted towards a dovish stance. John Williams of the New York Fed stated that if the economy remains as it is, interest rate cuts would not affect the inflation target; while Fed Governor Waller pointed out that the weakness in the labor market is sufficient to support another rate cut. Against this backdrop, the dollar index fell to a one-week low, continuing to be a significant supporting factor for gold. On the other hand, signs of improvement in the atmosphere surrounding regional peace negotiations have further boosted risk appetite. Multiple statements indicate that while negotiations remain far off, external sentiment has improved, thus weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. Overall, gold's fundamentals present a mixed structure of "cooling safe-haven demand + support from interest rate expectations." Short-term fluctuations in gold are more driven by sentiment than by trend reversal signals. From the combined perspective of interest rate expectations, dollar performance, and technical structure, this round of correction is more like a natural adjustment within an upward trend. If subsequent economic data continues to support expectations of rate cuts, then gold still has the potential to resume its upward trend after retracing to key support levels. However, it should be noted that fluctuations in peace negotiation expectations could bring additional volatility. There are no key data releases or events to watch today. The gold market will close two hours early due to Thanksgiving in the US, but this can be disregarded. Gold Price Analysis: Gold touched around 4173 in the US session yesterday before falling back. We identified the 4170-75 resistance level yesterday, a key resistance point we've emphasized in the past two days. If this level continues to act as resistance today, the downward momentum may persist. This morning, gold saw a slight pullback to around 4140 before consolidating in a narrow range. This morning's pullback is likely a tentative move; we will continue to monitor the resistance level to see how much further it may fall. Looking at the four-hour chart, the triangle consolidation pattern for gold remains unchanged. The downward trendline resistance is at 4173-75. Only a decisive break above this trendline will allow for further upward movement and a new opportunity. Otherwise, it will remain in consolidation at the end of the consolidation phase. On the one-hour chart, the price has started to break below the short-term support zone and is now under pressure from the short-term moving averages. There may be some room for adjustment in the short term; we will monitor the short-term correction. Today, continue to focus on the resistance level of the upper trendline of the triangle pattern, which is also the watershed between bulls and bears. If the resistance holds, expect a pullback. Therefore, we still need to try to establish short positions today. If there is a rebound to around 4168-73, we can short. In summary, the short-term trading strategy for gold today is to focus on selling on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4173-4175, and the key support level is 4110-4100. Please keep up with the pace.