Technical analysis by Artem_Dishel about Symbol APT on 12/11/2025

🧩 1. TVL (Total Value Locked) of Aptos 📉 Current state (mid-2025 → now): Peak TVL was around $220–250M Today it sits around $60–75M A decline of 3–4x ❗Compare: Solana: $5.5B+ Sui: $500M+ Aptos: $60M (10× smaller than its younger competitor Sui) 🔥 Conclusion: Aptos has very little liquidity, which means: no trading activity no DeFi no developers no user growth no revenue APT as a Layer-1 is failing in DeFi. 📊 2. Transactions & Active Users 🔽 Daily transactions: Previously inflated by bots to 5–10M Currently 200–300k real transactions Compare: Solana — 20–30M Sui — 2–4M TON — 5–7M APT is far below second-tier blockchains. 🔻 Daily active users (DAU): Only 20–40k. Extremely low for a Layer-1 chain. 🧨 Why? Because Aptos has: no major DEX activity no NFT ecosystem no gaming no DeFi no real demand 💵 3. Network Revenue (how much money Aptos earns) Aptos does not generate real revenue. Reasons: Very low transaction fees No trading volume in DeFi No popular apps or protocols High inflation + massive token unlocks Net revenue ≈ zero. This means: APT is not self-sustaining token has almost no fundamental value the ecosystem survives only on investor funds (not on organic demand) 🚨 4. On-Chain Activity 📉 DEX volume: At peak: $50–70M/day Today: $2–5M/day (basically dead) 📉 New smart contracts: Almost zero. Developers have moved to Sui, Solana, Monad, Berachain. 📉 New projects: No real ecosystem growth for over a year. 📉 NFT market: Dead. Even Sui and TON have more active NFT ecosystems. 💣 5. Tokenomics — Aptos’ biggest weakness One of the worst tokenomics among L1 chains. ❌ 1. Enormous token unlocks for years ahead Monthly unlocks go to: investors team foundations ecosystem grants Creates constant selling pressure. ❌ 2. High inflation — 7%+ per year ❌ 3. Token has almost no utility staking yield is low no strong use case in DeFi no natural demand beyond speculation 🟡 1-Month Outlook Scenario: 🔻 Likely decline toward $1.00–1.20 Unlock pressure + weak demand. 🔂 Possible bounce A technical rebound to $2.2–2.5 is possible, but NOT a trend reversal. 🟠 3-Month Outlook The key level is $1.00. More likely scenario: Break below $1 → move toward $0.60–0.70 Less likely: Bounce from $1 → retest $2.5–3.0 → continue downward Still bearish overall. 🔴 6-Month Outlook Considering: collapsing TVL developer outflow token inflation weak ecosystem no revenue extremely bearish chart 🎯 6-Month target: $0.40 – $0.70 If the market turns bullish, decline may slow down, but the overall trend remains down. 🧠 Final Verdict ❌ Aptos is a weak, overvalued Layer-1 with minimal real adoption. ❌ Tokenomics are toxic. ❌ On-chain activity is near dead. ❌ Chart shows massive downside continuation. ❌ Not suitable for long-term investing. ✔️ Short-term trading opportunities exist (bounces / shorts). ✔️ For long-term exposure, better look at SOL, TON, ETH, BTC, SUI.APT — a very interesting moment right now. Here’s the logic. Yesterday I did a fundamental and technical analysis of APT. Today, an important detail appeared that can’t be ignored. 👉 APT futures have already swept the previous low 👉 Spot price was even cheaper and didn’t show the same aggressive breakdown What does this mean in simple terms? The futures market usually reacts faster. It shows that sellers are losing control and a base for a move up is forming. In situations like this, spot often gives a last opportunity to enter at a better price. 📌 Conclusion: futures structure → bullish spot → still offers a clean entry risk → clear and well-defined 💡 My approach: APT is worth considering for a buy right now 📍 with a stop-loss below the local low This is not “buy and pray.” This is a structured trade with logic and proper risk management. The market never gives guarantees. It gives probabilities — and right now, APT favors the upside. Skilled traders don’t chase pumps. They enter when most people are still hesitating.