Technical analysis by Mayfair_Ventures about Symbol BTC on 11/15/2025

After 25 years playing this game, it is incredible to see the same issues today for new traders as there have always been. In a nutshell, OVERCOMPLICATION!!! New traders will often go looking for as much information as possible, adding instruments, screens, indicators, timeframes, news feeds. Anything looking for an edge. Go back over 100 years and Charles Dow - yes, the same Dow behind the #DJI (The industrial average) laid down a very simple framework for understanding the markets. I have written several posts here on TradingView about Dow Theory here's one of them. Inside this post, you will see this image. For some of you familiar with either Elliott Wave principles or Wyckoff Techniques, you might recognise some elements of an image like this. Both Richard Wyckoff and Ralph Elliott were onto something. But over the years these techniques have been "added to" creating hybrids and then assumptions are often made. Complex is key... Or so they think. When you try and trade an Elliott wave cycle on a 5-minute chart on some instrument that has not been fully adopted by institutional players, you are asking for trouble. Psychology is more important in trading than, quite possibly 99.9% of other aspects of trading. So whilst people tend to add to the technical analysis part of trading, they often ignore the psychology controlling the market. I am not talking about psychology in terms of simple risk management and high probability moves. I am talking about the piece of the psychology studies that controls the masses. Sentiment is one thing, the psychology that drives sentiment is where the failing and struggling traders simply ignore. I wrote a post - trying to add some humour. Here's a Simpson's post. ========================================= Let me give you an example; People tend to use simple off the shelf indicators; now when millions use the same tools. Why is it that 90% + of traders still lose money? Here is a snapshot of the MACD and RSI side by side. Now look closely at the price action. What additional info are you getting from these lagging indicators (rhetorical question). . Let's look at this in a simple way; no indicators, clean chart, Dow Theory in focus. When price moves up you will often see accumulation, then as price reaches it's next area of interest and starts to pullback (oversimplified) you will see, even on smaller timeframes as this is not always obvious on the same timeframe. a distribution pattern. Overall, the price action has created a simple Elliott Wave move from a zero point, up to one and pushing down for a two. Where this gets interesting, and simple... Is the psychology behind it, The momentum up is often created by early buyers (yes, state the obvious) these buyers have been accumulating. Then, as retail jumps in because RSI says so. The price pulls back. This is often deep into the zone it just left, retail often using small timeframes and tight stops - 5 pips, 10 pips. So you often see a PB of 11 pips (example) and you get that feeling of "why does it always hit my stop and then go in my desired direction"? The momentum from taking these stops, then goes on to create an impulsive 2-3 move in EW terms. This is stops becoming opposing orders. Thus creating momentum to break the high of the 1 move. New stops from shorts get triggered and momentum traders enter positions. All of which fuels a larger rally. Now, when you break this down. You can draw ranges and operate inside these ranges to know the general bias. And just like that, you are on the right side of the market more often than not. Here's a more detailed post on this aspect. To give an example here: The larger swing creates a range. An obvious high and low as marked in this image. Then as the move inside happens; Think Dow Theory; The market is giving a very clear clue. We just took out a fresh high and the market is seeking liquidity. That internal move will have a fractal move inside; let's call that a trigger move. Keep in mind, the larger trend does not change it's directional bias until it breaks the old low or the fresh high. Now, although the price does not have to. The price can pull all the way back to the low and not change the larger trend. Once you get to grips with this, you will stop trying to predict the market and instead work with price action. Less, really, is more! Have a great weekend!!! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.