Technical analysis by KrisadaYoonaisil about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (11/13/2025)

Not an uptrend yet for gold (XAUUSD)—just a rebound; be careful of a sharp reversal. Technical Analysis 1. XAUUSD rebounded to the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement around 4240, stalled, and has started to pull back. A bullish divergence between price and RSI has set, indicating the potential of a bearish reversal. 2. If XAUUSD falls below 4140, it would confirm the end of the rebound and could plunge lower to 4030, or even retest the prior low around 3900. 3. However, if the support at 4140 holds, the price may further spike to retest 4270 resistance before choosing the next direction. Fundamental Analysis 4. US government reopening allows economic data to be released, clarifying the economic outlook, and reduces uncertainty, which may diminish demand for safe-haven assets. 5. However, if upcoming data point to a weaker labor market, expectations for Fed rate cuts would increase and support gold. 6. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch shows the market has trimmed the probability of a 0.25% cut in December to 49.9%, down from 62.9% yesterday. For the first time, markets now assign a slightly higher probability to a hold (50.1%) , which will pressure the gold price once traders internalize this shift. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness