Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX on 11/4/2025

Price pulled back right to the midpoint of its rising channel The daily pivot (P) at ~$618.8 is being tested & that’s nearly identical to the 4H VWAP from the 10 October low This area has been a launchpad several times in the past (late July & early October) QQQ is at a major confluence of support & the channel midline, daily pivot & 20d MA all meet around here As long as price stays above $618-$615, we’re still within a bullish retracement phase Only below $600 would it flip to a genuine correction Daily volume (~63M) is above average, showing active rotation, not liquidation That’s consistent with funds taking profits near the channel top & adding back near support RSI has cooled from ~70 to ~50 Stochastic already oversold No bearish divergence on the daily timeframe - meaning trend structure is still intact Momentum is resetting inside an uptrend; historically, a buyable dip setup 1. Base & Bounce Hold $615-$620, reverse off oversold RSI ~60 % Revisit $633-$637 (R1) 2. Range Extension Choppy hold $615-$625 ~25 % Rebuild base before next leg 3. Breakdown Lose $615 on volume ~15 % Drop toward $600 (S1) The daily chart confirms this is a trend pullback to major support, not a structural break The $618-$615 area is pivotal since holding here likely produces a reflex rally toward $633-$637 (R1) Only a daily close below $600 would invalidate the broader bullish trend channel Both AMD & PLTR actually had decent numbers with solid growth, upbeat commentary & yet both stocks faded after the initial pop That tells you the market has moved into a digestion/valuation reset phase, where earnings beats are already priced in Funds are trimming positions to lock in Q4 gains Buyers are demanding cheaper entry points, not chasing momentum Fundamentals are fine, but sentiment is stretched & the market is rebalancing risk, not reacting to data QQQ is ~50% weighted in 5 mega-caps (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN & GOOG) AMD (~1.5%) & PLTR (~0.3%) just don’t have the muscle to offset broad weakness in those heavyweights AAPL & MSFT; for instance, have both seen post-earnings drift lower & that alone outweighs the total impact of AMD+PLTR’s strength Even if AMD had ripped +10%, QQQ might’ve barely budged unless NVDA or MSFT joined in - my working hypothesis from last week QQQ was extended at $637 & has reverted right to the trendline Until it bases near $615-$620 & rebuilds momentum, positive catalysts won’t “stick” The “risk-on” rotation will need confirmation likely through NVDA earnings (19 November), gov't reopening, or cool CPI print before institutions chase tech again Yields down helps valuation, but not enough to spark inflows when everyone’s already overweight tech VIX still ~19-20 indicates lingering hedging pressure Funds are rotating into laggards (industrials, small caps) temporarily - not abandoning risk entirely, just diversifying exposure This is sector rotation after a long tech-led run Short term (1-3 days) Choppy base-building near $615-$625 RSI/Stoch flattening, VIX <18.5 Medium term (1-2 weeks) Grind higher into mid-November NVDA earnings or soft CPI reignites momentum Risk zone Close <$610 Triggers momentum sell programs toward $600-$602 AMD & PLTR didn’t lift QQQ not because they failed, but because the market isn’t rewarding good news right now - it’s recalibrating positioning after a strong run The tape still looks like a sector rotation, not a risk-off event Once this consolidation burns off, QQQ can re-challenge $635-$640; likely, on a catalyst with broader weight (NVDA or macro)