Technical analysis by ThetaNomad about Symbol BTC: Buy recommendation (11/3/2025)

Traders, In my latest analysis I said that Bitcoin will reach 117.000-117.500 before a bigger dump. Price didn't reach those levels yet, and dumped instantly instead. However, the main thesis still stands: price is likely to reach that zone (117.000-117.500) before a larger reversal down. But before that, I expect a short squeeze beginning at $105.000. Why I Expect a Squeeze During the Asia session, new leveraged short exposure was built. Open Interest (OI) increased while Net Shorts rose, showing that traders were adding fresh short positions. Around 107,000–107,500, both Spot CVD and Coin-Margined CVD are showing bullish divergence. Sellers are active, but price is holding, which indicates absorption. Stablecoin-Margined CVD in the same range shows exhaustion, suggesting selling pressure is fading. At New York open, OI continued to rise together with Net Longs, meaning aggressive longs are now fading into the short exposure created during Asia. What This Means Historically, the London and New York sessions tend to sweep Asia’s positioning. When Asia builds short exposure, the later sessions often push price higher to liquidate those shorts. This often results in a short squeeze, which aligns with what we may be seeing now. Determining the Next Move Down Before deciding if price extends lower first, we must identify the variables of probability (VOP) — the “magnets” that increase the likelihood of a lower sweep. 1. Weak Thursday Low There is a weak low that has not been properly tested. In TPO (Time Price Opportunity) terms, a weak low forms when price finds temporary support without strong buying response. Such levels often get revisited. 2. Unswept Sunday 19 Oct Low There is also an unswept Sunday low from 19 October. Sunday lows are often swept because weekend liquidity is thin and order books are shallow. When liquidity returns during the week, those inefficient areas tend to get filled. Imbalances and Volume Gaps Below Next we look for gaps, imbalances, or LVNs (Low Volume Nodes) — areas where trading activity was limited or one-sided. These zones often attract price because markets seek balance. Many traders identify “fair value gaps” by looking at candles, but that only shows part of the picture. To locate the real inefficiency, we need to look inside the candles using order flow or a Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) to find the exact levels of bid-ask imbalance. Volume Profile and Fibonacci Confluence Drawing the Fixed Range Volume Profile from the impulse move below the Sunday 19 Oct low shows a clear imbalance at 105,070. Checking confluences: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement (low to high) aligns exactly with 105,070 The 0.886 retracement (higher low to high) also aligns exactly with 105,070 Fibonacci extensions (1.113 and 1.272) both target around 105,000 The 0.618 extension also lands near 105,000 Thesis Summary Based on all data and confluence: Price likely dips to sweep the weak 30 Oct low and the 19 Oct Sunday low Target zone: LVN / imbalance near 105,000 Expect a liquidity grab that traps late shorts and shakes out weak longs After that, expect a reversal toward 117,000–117,500, where the next major liquidity pool lies Why a Lower Sweep Is Expected The Asia session built significant short exposure There is an inefficiency and low-volume magnet around 105k Weak lows provide clear liquidity targets Once those areas are cleared, market structure favors a strong reversal upward In summary: Bitcoin is likely to make one more sweep toward the 105,000 zone to clear liquidity before expanding upward into the 117,000–117,500 area, where a larger reversal setup is likely to form. Of course, price can always move up or down without perfectly respecting these levels — the market does not owe us precision. These levels simply represent the highest-probability areas based on current data and confluence.By the way the 'LTF LVN' line that just got hit can also be the catalyst towards ~$117.500. However, I'll stay out of a position unless we get towards 105kFirst long is opened at $107.555(Last note must be $105.755 - Little typo)Although it looks like price is pumping back up, I wouldn’t chase longs here. Let price do its job and fill that LVN (Low Volume Node) around $105,068 first.