Technical analysis by DatTong about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (10/24/2025)

Fundamental approach: - Gold prices traded lower this week after setting fresh record highs earlier in Oct, pressured by profit-taking and cautious sentiment ahead of delayed US inflation data. - Geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further Fed easing continued to support underlying demand for safe havens in the longer term. - US President Trump'sTrump's new sanctions on Russia and export restrictions toward China, alongside the prolonged US government shutdown, reinforced demand early in the week. At the same time, stabilization in trade rhetoric and rising yields curbed momentum later.​ - However, a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields amid improved global risk appetite and optimism around an upcoming US. China dialogue also reduced safe-haven demand in the short term, especially with today's CPI, which is expected to rise. Technical approach: - Gold consolidated within the range of 4054-4113. The price is below the converging EMAs, indicating that a bearish momentum persists. - If the XAUUSD breaches the support at 4054, the price may decline further toward the next support level at 3950. - On the contrary, remaining above 4054 may prompt a retest of the upper range at 4143, confluenced with the EMA21. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at ExnessThe Sep US CPI, released today after a delay due to the government shutdown, showed inflation rising 0.3% MoM and 3.0% YoY, slightly below expectations of 0.4% and 3.1% respectively. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2% on the month and 3.0% annually, signaling a moderation from Aug's 3.1% reading.​ This cooler-than-expected report eased market concerns about persistent inflation, reigniting expectations that the Fed will proceed with a 0.25% rate cut at its 29 Oct meeting, with futures pricing almost full probability of a second cut in Dec. The moderation in underlying prices indicates declining pressure from shelter and goods costs, aligning with the Fed’s recent dovish tone.​ For XAUUSD, the softer CPI initially supported bullish sentiment as lower inflation and a more accommodative Fed reduce real yields and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. That's why the market found support right at 4050 and an engulfing candle, and may retest 4143. This falls into a very classical trading setup of range breakout. Look for a breakout trading setup within the range I provided.