Technical analysis by KrisadaYoonaisil about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/23/2025)

It's not the end of the uptrend yet for gold; the bull is just taking a break. Technical Analysis 1. XAUUSD remains trading within an ascending channel that has been emerged since early August 2025. Although the price briefly tested the lower boundary, it quickly rebounded. 2. The recent sharp drop occurred after gold broke above the ascending channel’s upper boundary while momentum indicators were overbought which mean the price was extremely bullish and subjected to correct back. This suggests merely a short-term consolidation after an excessively rise, rather than a bearish reversal. 3. The pullback may also reflect mean reversion, as price had been distance above the EMAs. Even so, XAUUSD is still holding above the short EMA (EMA21), and the multi-period EMAs maintaining uptrend structure. 4. On the candlestick interpretation, there was only one long bearish candlestick, followed by a pin bar that briefly dipped near 4000 before bouncing—implying the sell-off was absorbed by significant demand which mean the bearish momentum is fading. 5. A 400 USD decline from peak may look massive, but relative to a prior rally of over 1,000 USD in one leg, it is more likely a corrective move within a minor wave than a totally reversal. 6. From here, if XAUUSD can holds above the support at 3900, price is likely to move sideways in range for a while ( around 1–2 months), before resuming the uptrend. 7. In a more bullish scenario, if the price remains in within the ascending channel, we could see a new all-time high again soon, even with stronger bullish momentum that we haven't seen before. 8. However, if the price falls below 3900, that may signal a transition to a longer-term downtrend and would warrant a reassessment of this outlook. Fundamental Analysis 9. The underlying fundamentals that have recently driven gold bullish has no sign of changing, meaning they should continue to support, including: 10. Central bank buying: Many central banks have been adding gold, creating steady, non-speculative demand and no sign of pause. 11. Geopolitics & fiscal stress: Ongoing conflicts, U.S.–China frictions, and debt/shutdown risks keep safe-haven demand for gold elevated. 12. US debt: This might be the actual most significant reason why the gold price has come this far and could drive the price beyond 4400. The demand for safe havens to avoid fiat currency. 13. Investment/ETF inflows: While equity prices may be overvalued, with increasing concern, gold becomes the most reliable investment vehicle. Gold ETFs have large YTD inflows (near record holdings), reinforcing momentum and demand. 14. Supply constraints: Few new mines and rising costs keep supply growth tight, supporting higher prices amid strong demand. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness