Technical analysis by TheodoreSilas about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/21/2025)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LWtGV4Vd/ News： Recent fiscal and political uncertainty in the United States continues to linger, with the recurring risk of a government shutdown and the slow pace of fiscal negotiations disrupting economic data releases and expectations management. On the monetary policy front, market expectations for further Fed rate cuts persist, forming a "mildly dovish" psychological anchor alongside the Fed's forward guidance. This limits the upward potential for real interest rates, favoring gold, a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain, reinforcing the value of safe-haven assets. Furthermore, any unexpected surprises in the upcoming US inflation report could trigger a repricing of the interest rate path, potentially significantly increasing short-term volatility. The dollar's temporary strength is primarily driven by the resilience of the equity market and the stickiness of short-term yields. However, this "strength" reflects more of a short-term suppression than a trend reversal. If inflation and growth weaken marginally, or if the market re-prices its assumption of two rate cuts, the dollar will have room to retreat, and gold could gain additional momentum. Specifically: Structural bullish: From a long-term perspective, gold prices have completed a large M-shaped upward trend. If they fail to break below the effective support level of 4100, the theoretical target range could gradually move towards 4200-4300 (corresponding to the linkage between trend continuation and rising risk premiums). This path relies on the macroeconomic combination of continued geopolitical uncertainty, falling inflation, and lower interest rates, which has not been overturned. Trading strategy: Buy: 4085-4075, SL: 4060, TP: 4145-4180However, if the shutdown is extended until the cumulative effect becomes apparent, the return of safe-haven funds may support the gold price to rebound to the previous high of 4,300 in the medium term.