Technical analysis by EmmaChartist about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/20/2025)

Hello everyone, Gold has entered a corrective phase after reaching the historical peak at 4,380–4,400 USD/oz. Selling pressure has emerged, triggering a strong bearish candle and sending price back to retest the 4,220–4,240 USD zone — also the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the Ichimoku system, acting as short-term support. At the moment, gold is attempting a slight recovery around 4,265 USD but still trades inside the Kumo cloud, suggesting a sideways correction after an overheated rally. On the H1 chart, the bullish structure has temporarily weakened with a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows forming. The 4,280–4,310 USD area is a red Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, currently serving as the nearest resistance where sellers may re-enter. Meanwhile, the thick Kumo cloud continues to reflect persistent corrective pressure, especially as recent declines were supported by rising volume — confirming profit-taking at peak levels. From a fundamental perspective, this retracement is a healthy “cool-down” following nine consecutive weeks of gains. Gold surged nearly 25% in just two months — an exceptionally rare move in history — so profit-taking was inevitable. Additionally, sentiment has been influenced by the Federal Reserve’s lack of clear commitment regarding the timing of rate cuts. Recent US macro data such as CPI and retail sales exceeded expectations, giving the Fed justification to maintain a cautious stance. This has boosted the US Dollar Index (DXY) back toward 106.5, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has moved near 4.1%, reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Risk sentiment has also improved as geopolitical tension between the US and China cooled and the US government avoided a shutdown, prompting some safe-haven flows to rotate out of gold. Several analysts agree that this pullback is constructive for the broader trend, with Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro noting that gold was “overbought” and needed a rebalancing phase, while Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures reiterated that the long-term trend remains bullish. In the short term, gold may continue to move within the 4,220–4,280 USD range, with a potential retest of the 4,210–4,220 USD zone — the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud. If buyers step back in and price breaks above 4,285 USD, a rebound toward the 4,300–4,315 USD FVG resistance zone is likely before the market decides its next direction. Only a confirmed break below 4,200 USD would reinforce further downside toward 4,150 USD. Conversely, holding above 4,200 USD would suggest gold is still in a healthy consolidation phase and retains the potential to revisit 4,300–4,350 USD in the coming sessions.