Technical analysis by Ian_Carsen about Symbol BTC on 10/20/2025

Looking at this chart, I just don't see much of a reason to be scared (October..Halloween). BTC has had a long slow period. The big volatility is coming, the question only is--which direction. Given the macro and the chart, I expect some more upside after the current consolidation plays out. There could be 1 more low in the cards, or we could have experienced the low already. Invalidation: If BTC breaks below the current 'locked' parabola and does not recover quickly, I will turn bearish. However, I suspect a 'fake out' is very possible. Regardless, the bottom range should hold in either case, with the top of the range holding in the 'fake out' scenario, and lower in the rang holding for the bearish scenario--this is how I will tell what is happening in that case. --- What seems to be playing out from an Elliott Wave standpoint is a moon scenario of an extended wave 5, with a leading diagonal for wave 1. We'd currently be on wave 2 or beginnings of wave 3. Honestly, it's a little hard to believe--but then I look at the gold chart--that thing has gone parabolic as well. BTC has some similarity to gold in that it's a safe-haven type of asset (for the more risk tolerant!). Given many who are dissatisfied/alarmed with the US's policies, I can definitely see these assets continuing to be bid for the time being. This would be a departure from prior cycles, in that this cycle would be longer than 4 years essentially. Many have long speculated that the halvings will effect the asset less and less--after all, 20 million btc have been mined with only 1 million to go for the rest of its life. The altcoins haven't gotten much love yet. This is simply not how a bull market typically ends--definitely not much euphoria!