Technical analysis by EmmaChartist about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/17/2025)

Hello everyone, Gold is still maintaining a strong uptrend on the 4H timeframe, even though it shows signs of stalling in the supply zone around 4.34–4.36. Given the wick candle formed there, I lean toward the scenario where price pulls back in the short term to the 4.26–4.24 zone to fill FVG and gather liquidity before moving up again to retest 4.34–4.36. If that area is decisively broken, the upward momentum could extend toward 4.39–4.40 and even into the 4.43x region. Conversely, only a 4H close below 4.20 will make me consider a deeper decline toward 4.17–4.145. Macro backdrop: News still backing the bulls This week, gold has repeatedly hit record highs above 4,200 USD, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and intensifying geopolitical/trade tensions. The highs of recent sessions around 4.12k – 4.22k – 4.21k validate the already strong trend. Fed cut expectations: According to CME FedWatch, the market is nearly certain (97–98%) that the Fed will cut 25 bps in October and possibly again in December. Comments from official Waller — advocating a 25 bps cut due to weaker labor conditions — further underpin this anticipation. US–China rare earth tensions: Beijing has tightened export licensing, while Washington lashes out — Bloomberg calls this a “rare earth shock,” a new geopolitical lever sustaining global risk. US shutdown risk: The Treasury estimates that a prolonged government shutdown could cost up to $15 billion a week — this uncertainty often drives safe-haven flows into gold. Solid base demand: According to WGC, central banks continued net purchases (19 tonnes in August), helping form a resilient floor for gold prices in 2025. With the macro narrative still tilted supportive, the current pullback on 4H is most likely a healthy retracement to fill FVG and rebalance positions, before price retests 4.36 and eyes 4.40–4.43x. Short-term risks include a surprise hawkish Fed statement or a strong bounce in DXY / yields. In such a case, gold could dip toward 4.22–4.20 (the 4H trend buffer). However, the larger uptrend remains intact as long as 4.20 holds. What do you think — will gold successfully retest before climbing again, or see a deeper pullback first?