Technical analysis by GoldFxMinds about Symbol PAXG on 10/11/2025

Gold ended the week standing high above 4,000, still glowing from a historic run — but the tone has changed. Momentum has cooled, candles now breathe smaller, and for the first time since late August, the market shows signs of balance instead of chase. It’s not weakness — it’s the pause that defines the next move. 🌍 Macro Context The upcoming week (13–17 Oct) will be shaped by the Fed’s words more than its numbers. With Powell, Waller, Bowman, Barr, and Schmid speaking, and data like Core PPI, Retail Sales, and Jobless Claims hitting midweek, volatility will pulse around tone and timing. If rhetoric softens → gold consolidates near highs. If it turns hawkish → a controlled daily correction begins. 🧭 Daily Structural Bias The daily flow remains macro bullish, but the structure is extended above equilibrium. Imbalances have been filled, RSI diverges, and top wicks show exhaustion. The market is shifting from expansion to rebalancing — preparing new ground for the next leg of the macro trend. 🗺️ Daily Structural Map Upper Liquidity Cap (Extreme Premium) 4,185 – 4,260 Untested liquidity above the recent high. If the week starts with soft USD tone, a sweep into this range could occur before correction — this is not a trade zone, only a liquidity target. Major Supply Zone – Premium Distribution 4,050 – 4,130 The top of the impulsive wave. Institutional distribution confirmed by rejection wick and imbalance closure. This is the short-term ceiling; structure will only expand beyond here if the macro backdrop supports it. Decision Range – Mid-Structure Equilibrium 3,980 – 3,900 The heartbeat of current structure — last BOS body, 21 EMA retest, and fibo 38.2–50 confluence. This range defines control for the coming week. Hold above = reaccumulation. Break below = structural correction begins. Primary Demand Zone – Reaccumulation Base 3,740 – 3,640 The first deep rebalancing pocket. Daily OB and FVG overlap, aligned with the 50 EMA. A controlled pullback here would be healthy, not bearish — the market refuels before the next push. Secondary Demand Zone – Macro Discount Pool 3,580 – 3,460 The untouched foundation of August structure — pure liquidity and institutional memory. Only if the Fed turns decisively hawkish could price revisit this deep zone. 🚀 Bullish Scenario If gold stabilizes above 3,900, buyers remain in control. Price could retest 4,050–4,130, and if macro sentiment softens, a liquidity grab into 4,185–4,260 is possible before consolidation. Continuation above 4,050 requires conviction, not noise. 🔻 Bearish Scenario If price loses 3,900, the structure begins a controlled correction. Rotation into 3,740–3,640 becomes the primary play, where the first institutional demand awaits. Failure there opens the door toward 3,580–3,460 for a full daily rebalance. 🧩 Conclusion Gold’s structure remains bullish but stretched — the market stands between exhaustion and reaccumulation. The key battle this week will unfold inside the 3,980–3,640 corridor, where liquidity meets equilibrium. Above that lies distribution; below it, opportunity. Bias: bullish macro trend, corrective daily phase ahead. Zones to monitor: 4,050–4,130 → Premium Supply 3,980–3,900 → Decision Range 3,740–3,640 → Structural Demand ✨ The map is drawn — now the market decides. Follow, like and comment GoldFxMinds | Where structure becomes strategy.