Technical analysis by MrOscar18 about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (10/9/2025)

Current Price: 4032 Resistance: 4043 Support: 4001 Target: 3970 Gold has recently struggled to maintain bullish momentum and is currently trading around the 4032 level. From a technical and fundamental perspective, I see increased probability of a bearish continuation, with price likely to break below the 4001 support level and move toward the 3970 zone in the near term. Fundamental Catalyst: Geopolitical Relief A major geopolitical development has shifted the market's sentiment: reports confirm that a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel has been brokered by former President Trump. This development has significantly reduced short-term geopolitical risk in the region, dimming gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. With safe-haven flows drying up, gold is vulnerable to further downside, particularly if this ceasefire holds and is followed by broader regional stability Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, several indicators are aligning with the bearish thesis: Price Structure: Gold recently failed to break and hold above the 4043 resistance, forming a potential lower high in a short-term downtrend. Support Under Threat: The 4001 level has held as support multiple times, but the repeated tests suggest weakening demand. A clean break below 4001 opens the door toward 3970. Bearish RSI Divergence: On the 4H chart, RSI is trending lower despite price stabilizing, hinting at bearish momentum building under the surface. Moving Averages: Gold is currently trading below the 50-period EMA on the 4H chart, and that EMA is beginning to slope downward—signaling a potential trend shift to the downside. Trade Outlook Bias: Bearish Scenario 1 (High Probability): Price breaks below 4001 → Continues lower toward 3970. Scenario 2 (Invalidation): If price reclaims 4043 and closes above on strong volume, bearish outlook will be re-evaluated.