Technical analysis by Skill-Knowledge-Conduct about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (10/7/2025)

Gold (XAUUSD) Q4 2025 Distribution & Decline Summary Execution Venue: OANDA Primary Distribution Phase • Level 1: $4,086.409 → expected drop to $3,845.306 • Level 2: $4,307.084 → expected drop to $3,774.415 • Level 3: $4,322.242 → expected drop to $4,112.993 • Technical Note: Level 3 is projected to form a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, signalling the onset of a broader decline phase. Descending Distribution & Drop Levels Following the final distribution phase, gold is expected to transition into a descending structure: • Initial Drop Level: $3,542.697 • Recovery to Level 1: $3,682.075 • Secondary Drop: $3,605.909 • Level 2: $3,850.230 → extended rise to $3,991.912 • This area represents the final retracement before a primary market decline. Major Decline Stage If support fails to hold after Level 2 retracement, gold is projected to enter a deeper decline toward: • Primary Decline Target: $2,644.533 • Extended Downside Targets: • $2,312.601 • $2,240.480 (contingent on failure to establish new support above $2,644.533) Technical Outlook: Q4 2025 marks the peak of the current gold distribution cycle. The formation of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern at Level 3 will likely trigger a structural reversal. A sustained failure to hold above the $3,542–$3,682 support range would confirm entry into the macro decline phase targeting the mid-$2,000s region. This forecast maps out a complete cyclical sequence: an initial distribution at upper resistance zones, a corrective drop into the primary accumulation base, a secondary accumulation before the next advance, and a final upside move into higher distribution territory. Disclaimer: The following forecast is derived from a proprietary, hand-crafted mathematical model developed independently over several years. It does not rely on traditional indicators, technical patterns, or third-party frameworks such as Elliott Wave Theory. This model calculates price action based on distribution phases, economic timing cycles, and natural market imbalances.