Technical analysis by MrOscar18 about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (10/4/2025)

GOLD LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: Bullish Setup Targeting 4200 by December Current Price: ~$3886 Timeframe: 3-month outlook (Oct–Dec 2025) Target: 4200 Key Support: 3793 Technical Analysis Gold is currently consolidating near the 3886 level after filling a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3875. I anticipate a short-term pullback toward the 3793 support zone, where significant historical demand aligns. This level is expected to act as a springboard for the next bullish leg, targeting 4200 by year-end. The liquidity sweep at 3840 and the recent FVG fill indicate internal strength in the market, with price action respecting key institutional levels. Macro & Fundamental Drivers Supporting the Bullish Case Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Expected The Fed is widely anticipated to cut rates in October and again in December as inflation shows signs of moderating but recessionary risks loom. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, historically boosting its price. Recession and Inflation Fears in the U.S. The U.S. economy is walking a tightrope between inflation control and growth slowdown. With growing concerns over stagflation and a potential recession, investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold. U.S. Government Shutdown and Dollar Printing The recent government shutdown has intensified pressure on fiscal policy. To maintain liquidity and manage spending, the government may resort to further dollar expansion, which can lead to currency debasement — a bullish catalyst for gold. Record Central Bank Gold Buying Global central banks continue to accumulate gold at historic levels. For the first time, global gold reserves have surpassed U.S. dollar reserves, highlighting a long-term shift in store-of-value preference. This trend underpins continued structural demand for gold.