Technical analysis by tex071173952 about Symbol TSLAX: Buy recommendation (10/3/2025)

Technical View: Trend intact. Momentum constructive. Cycle still maturing. The RSI roadmap suggests the story is far from over — and the most explosive phase may still lie ahead. Summary: Back in April , we identified the $270–$320 region as a decisive long-term support zone — a confluence of the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels and the lower boundary of Tesla’s decade-long rising channel. That analysis has played out perfectly: TSLA retested this zone, built a solid base, and resumed its uptrend. Today, with the stock trading above $430 and advancing toward the channel median — already within proximity of the next resistance zone around $480–$500 — the most powerful signal comes from momentum rather than price. The monthly RSI tells us something crucial: we are not near a cycle top. In fact, historical patterns suggest Tesla is entering the expansion phase of a new multi-year bull cycle , with much higher prices still ahead. RSI and Market Cycles: What History Tells Us Tesla’s two previous major bull markets — in 2013–2014 and 2019–2021 — followed a remarkably similar script before topping out: The first euphoric peak of each cycle coincided with a monthly RSI above 90 , not in the middle of the channel but as price pushed into — and slightly above — the upper boundary. After that first RSI > 90 event, the stock posted two higher highs with lower RSI peaks , a textbook sign of momentum exhaustion (bearish divergence). The result each time: a sharp correction of 45–75% . Today, RSI sits near 56 — nowhere close to overbought extremes. This strongly implies that Tesla is still in the mid-cycle expansion stage — a phase historically associated with sustained institutional accumulation, accelerating price gains, and multiple expansion. Even more importantly, if history repeats, RSI > 90 will not occur until price reaches the upper boundary or slightly breaks above it . Based on current channel geometry, that implies a potential first euphoric peak in the $1,200–$1,600 range — far above where the stock trades today. My Prediction and Trade Idea I believe Tesla is now in the second phase of a new multi-year bull cycle, likely playing out over the next 18–30 months . The technical setup — price structure, channel dynamics, and RSI behaviour — all point to continued upside. My base-case roadmap: Near-term: Tesla approaches the $480–$500 resistance area (upper half of the channel) in the coming months. Mid-term: A breakout above $500 could trigger a sustained expansion leg toward $650–$700. Late-cycle: As momentum peaks and RSI nears 90, price could accelerate into the $1,200–$1,600 zone — the area historically associated with euphoric tops. For long-term investors and swing traders, the current risk-reward profile remains compelling. As long as Tesla holds above the $320 accumulation zone, the path of least resistance remains higher. Profit Targets and Stop Loss First Target : $480–$500 (upper half of the channel) Second Target : $650–$700 (mid-cycle breakout extension) Third Target : $1,200–$1,600 (historical RSI > 90 / euphoric top zone) Stop-Loss Strategy: A sustained monthly close below $320 would invalidate the mid-cycle thesis and suggest a deeper corrective structure. For traders, this remains the technical “line in the sand.” Risks to Consider While the technical backdrop is bullish, several risks could challenge this thesis: Macro Shifts : Higher-for-longer rates or a global recession could compress growth multiples. Execution Risk : Delays in autonomy, robotics, or the energy business could dampen investor enthusiasm. Valuation Pressure : Tesla’s premium valuation makes it sensitive to changes in growth expectations. Momentum Signals : If RSI fails to advance significantly during the next leg higher, it may signal internal weakness and an earlier-than-expected cycle peak. Conclusion Tesla’s long-term uptrend remains robust, key support has held, and momentum indicators show we are still early in a powerful new bull cycle. Historical RSI behaviour strongly suggests that the first euphoric phase — where RSI exceeds 90 and a true cycle top begins to form — will occur at much higher levels , likely $1,200–$1,600 . Until then, price action, structure, and momentum all point to continued appreciation. As long as support holds above $320, the base-case scenario is clear: Tesla’s next major move is higher — and the market is still writing the early chapters of this bull cycle .