Technical analysis by niclaxfx about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (10/2/2025)

📝Thesis: Just entered a short on BTCUSD based on a confluence of technical and macro signals. This isn’t just about overbought RSI - it’s about asymmetric risk, deceptive bullish structure, and a broader bearish undertone most traders are ignoring. 📉 Setup Breakdown RSI (H4): 85.12 – Extremely Overbought. Historically, this zone has triggered sharp pullbacks. Previous RSI peaks marked “Bear” on chart confirm the pattern(July, August 2025). 📊 Chart Structure: Rising wedge approaching STR resistance zone + 78.6 fib level. Price action looks exhausted, and volume is fading. 🌐 Macro Bias: Despite local bullish momentum, the broader trend remains bearish. Credit spreads are widening, and macro liquidity is tightening. Risk-off tone is creeping in. ⚖️ RR Profile: ATH is just ~$4K above. Downside targets offer cleaner reward zones with tighter invalidation. Stop placed just above STR zone. 🎯 Trade Parameters ✅ Entry: Near STR resistance zone ⛔️ Stop: Above upper trend line / STR zone 🟠 Target 1: Mid-channel support 🟢 Target 2: Lower fib confluence zone 🧠 Macro Overlay U.S. credit spreads are widening (HY index at 2.75%, CDS spreads rising). Government shutdown risk is escalating. Fed is in risk-management mode - not panic yet, but tone is shifting. October is historically volatile (see 2008 analogs) - watch for liquidity stress. ⚠️ TL;DR Shorting BTCUSD here isn’t just technical - it’s strategic. Overbought RSI + bearish wedge + macro stress = asymmetric setup. Risk is capped, reward is clean. Let’s see how it plays out.Resistance Zone strongly rejected - watching to see where the candle closes tonight, will be a very significant confirmation of the bear market narrative or its invalidation.Thesis delayed, not denied. Price action has stretched the timing window, but the macro-bearish structure remains intact. To resolidify the thesis, we need a daily close below $119K - that’s the line in the sand. 🟠 Above $119K: reflexive strength, tactical patience, and volatility recalibration 🟢 Below $119K: thesis revalidated, distribution bias confirmed, downside targets reopened Until then, we hold narrative tension. The setup is still live-just waiting for price to cooperate.Setup Invalidated: Resistance Zone Breached Rejection did not hold - price broke through the resistance zone, invalidating the short thesis. Appreciate all the comments and feedback - always valuable in refining the lens. For now, I'm expecting sidelined movement and observing reflexive momentum. Will reassess once structure reasserts itself or signs of exhaustion emerge. Else, the bullish rally continues. Momentum favors continuation until proven otherwise. Watching for signs of overextension or divergence, but respecting strength until the tape says otherwise.