Technical analysis by ThinkMarkets about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (9/30/2025)

Gold hit fresh all-time highs above $3,875 as multiple catalysts converged on September 30th. Let's break down the perfect storm driving this bull run and critical technical levels ahead. Key Market Drivers: US Government Shutdown: Congress fails to agree on fiscal budget by tonight's deadline – no jobs data Friday, Fed flies blind into October meeting Fed Rate Cut Odds: 89% probability of October cut, 65% chance of December follow-up as economic data blackout begins China's Golden Week: 8-day market closure starting tomorrow removes world's largest gold consumer from active trading End-of-Month Flows: Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing adding fuel to momentum Technical Analysis: Triangle Breakout : Confirmed breakout from major consolidation pattern Fibonacci Targets : 200% extension at $3,885 (current area), next target $3,920 Elliott Wave Count : Approaching potential 5th wave completion near $4,000 RSI Setup: Flat momentum suggests another leg higher before divergence Trading Levels: Resistance: $3,885 (200% Fib), $3,920 (triangle target), $4,000 (psychological) Support: $3,830, $3,790 (swing low), $3,750 (triangle support) Channel: Ascending channel intact – trend bullish while above support Strategy : Bullish Bias : Continuation above $3,850, target $3,920-$4,000 Risk Scenario: IF (possible) government deal reached, watch for profit-taking to $3,790 Stop Loss: Above $3,910 for any short-term correction trades A historic confluence of political dysfunction, monetary policy uncertainty, and technical breakout adds to bullish bias. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.