Technical analysis by que about Symbol PAXG on 9/17/2025

With retail sales coming in a bit hotter than expected, I guess that the Fed chair will stick to a quarter-point, or 25 basis point, reduction from the current target range of 4.25%-4.5%. will see a more hawkish than Dovish Fed as they think inflation is still sticky. Fed Angle: If Powell goes with a 25bps cut, then gold will likely rally for a bit, then likely consolidate, possibly with a small pullback, since some of it is already priced in. So while the rate decision is pretty much in the bag, what happens from there is anybody’s guess. So my setup will be simple Bearish Scenario (Fed only cuts 25bps or stays hawkish) will see a fake buy @3 ,720, then gold will drop after the dust settles to this zone Entry: After Gold breaks below 3,680. Targets: TP1: 3,650 unmitigated liquidity Stop-Loss: 3,800 (above breakout fakeout zone). Bullish Scenario (Fed goes 50bps cut, as a more dovish tone ) Entry: Buy above 3,700–3,710 (after confirmation candle closes). Targets: TP1: 3,770 TP2: 3,850 TP3: 3,900 Stop-Loss: 3,680Entry: After Gold breaks below 3,680. Targets: TP1: 3,650 unmitigated liquidity after the projected 25 bps cut. I was expecting a retreat at the unmitigated zoneThis was expected after the 25bps Fed cut because the rally had already been priced in. Now gold has grabbed Liquidity That spike into 3,720 acted as a liquidity sweep → Gold cleared stop orders above resistance before reversing. Now it’s looking back to test demand zones (like your 3,650 retrace box). Setup: Gold defends the 3,650 Strong demand Bounce off 3,650 → retest 3,700–3,720. Break above 3,720 = extension to 3,780–3,800. Bulls to come in now and drive the Gold up after the dust has settled Above 3,650 look for longs targeting 3,720 → 3,780.