Technical analysis by lonelyPlayer0 about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (9/2/2025)

Gold Outlook: Historical Highs Above $3500 – Consolidation or Deeper Correction Ahead? Gold has once again updated its all-time highs above the $3500 mark, confirming the strong bullish trend that has been dominating the market in recent months. However, immediately after this breakout attempt, we saw a corrective pullback triggered by a short-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This raises a key question for traders and investors: is this just a temporary pause before new highs, or the beginning of a deeper correction phase? Macro & Fundamental Drivers U.S. Dollar & Fed Expectations: The probability of a September rate cut is now estimated at 90%, which remains one of the strongest supportive factors for gold. Nevertheless, temporary USD strength is weighing on the metal in the short term. Importantly, markets are increasingly focused on concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressure (particularly from Trump) casting uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path. Geopolitical Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions are also adding fuel to safe-haven demand. Recent reports highlight intensified strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory, raising fears of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This factor continues to support defensive assets like gold, even in the face of short-term dollar strength. Upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Today’s key macro event is the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Consensus expects a modest rise to 49, which would still leave the index in the contraction zone. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, the USD could receive temporary support, keeping gold under pressure. If the data misses expectations and shows further weakness, it could accelerate dollar selling and act as a catalyst for gold to retest or break above historical highs. Technical Picture Gold’s sharp rejection above $3500 suggests that the market is not yet ready for a sustainable breakout. At the same time, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The key levels to watch in the short term are: Resistance: $3485, $3500, $3505 Support: $3467.6, $3441, $3423 A sustained move below $3490–3485 may open the way for a deeper correction into the 3440–3420 support zone. On the other hand, a successful defense of these levels could lead to another retest of $3500–3505, though at this stage the market does not yet show strong momentum for an immediate continuation higher. Trading Scenarios Bearish Case (short-term): Failure to hold above $3485 may trigger selling pressure toward 3467–3440, and possibly even 3423 in the near term. Bullish Case (medium-term): Any dip toward the support zone could attract buyers, especially if fundamentals (weak ISM PMI / dovish Fed expectations / geopolitical tensions) align. A confirmed breakout above $3505 would signal continuation toward new record highs. 🔑 Bottom Line: Gold remains in a bullish long-term uptrend but faces short-term correction risks. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release could be the decisive factor for immediate direction. Watch closely whether bulls can defend the 3485–3490 zone or whether bears push the price lower toward support levels before the next leg higher.