Technical analysis by Swissquote about Symbol BTC on 9/1/2025

While September is the worst month in terms of performance statistics for the S&P 500 index, and BTC has been developing a positive correlation with the S&P 500, can the price of bitcoin avoid a correction scenario this September 2025? And in the event that this September turns out to be corrective for BTC, could this open the door for a year-end rebound starting in October, which benefits from much stronger seasonality? In this article, we will address these two questions. 1.September is the weakest month for the S&P 500 in terms of seasonality, and the same applies to bitcoin I invite you first to revisit our analysis of S&P 500 seasonality by clicking on the performance table below: September is therefore the worst month for the S&P 500 in terms of seasonality, and investors fear a decline in the US stock market this September, especially as fundamental challenges are numerous (the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 17) and the S&P 500 is as expensive as it was at the end of 2021 in terms of valuation. Is this bearish consensus a trap? At first glance, no, because September has also been the month with the worst average performance and the worst median performance for bitcoin since 2009. The table below, sourced from Coinglass, shows the month-by-month seasonality of bitcoin since 2013: 2.But in the bitcoin bull cycle that began in autumn 2022, linked to the 2024 halving, September was not negative and even marked the start of a year-end bullish impulse There are nevertheless reasons to hope that September 2025—perhaps stormy in its first part—could end on a more favorable note. Moreover, when looking at September 2023 and September 2024 (the Septembers of our cycle, the one that began in autumn 2022 after the end of the bear market), we can see that they triggered (from the second half of the month) a strong bullish impulse. The chart below shows bitcoin’s weekly candlesticks since the start of the current cycle, which began in autumn 2022. Ultimately, the final trend of bitcoin this September 2025 will not be determined by cyclical or chart analysis, but by the monetary policy decision that the Fed will unveil on Wednesday, September 17. 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