Technical analysis by RakyatTrader about Symbol PAXG on 8/28/2025

Gold prices are currently at a critical juncture, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle that has been developing over an extended period. An initial breakout near the 3,414 level signaled potential bullish continuation; however, the key challenge remains at a well-tested resistance zone that has repeatedly capped upward momentum. 1. Fundamental Update According to Investing.com, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized during his Jackson Hole speech that the Fed is considering rate cuts as inflation remains elevated while unemployment begins to rise. This creates a unique macro backdrop: persistent inflation concerns on one hand, but weakening labor market conditions on the other. Powell acknowledged that labor market risks “may warrant rate cuts,” though he refrained from explicitly endorsing immediate action. 2. Resistance Structure The chart shows four distinct retests of the same resistance zone. Each approach toward the 3.618 Fibonacci level has resulted in sharp rejections, confirming the area as a major resistance cluster. Such multiple rejections at resistance often resolve either with a deeper correction or a decisive breakout once buyers gain control. 3. Fibonacci Confluence Area Above the current resistance, a Fibonacci confluence zone exists around 3,704.77, formed by overlapping levels of 1.618, 2.618, and 4.618 from multiple swings. This area serves as a key upside target if the 3,425–3,450 resistance band is broken decisively. 4. Scenario Analysis Bullish Scenario A confirmed daily close above 3,425–3,450 with a solid candle body would open the door to 3,555 (1.618 extension), with further upside potential toward 3,704 (Fibonacci confluence). Such a breakout would mark a strong shift in buyer dominance, increasing the probability of a new higher high. Bearish Scenario If rejection occurs again at resistance, price could retreat toward the triangle support near 3,271.52. A breakdown below this support would expose downside risks toward 3,100–3,150 (2.618 extension). Conclusion Gold is at a decisive crossroads. Fundamentally, Powell’s dovish tone regarding labor market risks supports the bullish case. Technically, the 3,425–3,450 zone remains the pivotal level: a valid breakout would strengthen the case for a rally toward 3,704, while failure to clear resistance would prolong consolidation and increase the risk of a corrective move back to 3,271 or lower.