Technical analysis by pakoumal about Symbol QQQX: Sell recommendation (8/12/2025)

Macro Tailwinds Needed Fed Policy Rate Cut in September — Market is pricing ~93–95% odds; an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations. Soft Landing Narrative — If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher. Yields 10-Year Treasury back toward 3.8–4.0% — Lower yields reduce discount rates on future tech earnings, historically supportive for QQQ. Earnings "Mag 7" beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon need to deliver both EPS beats and strong guidance, keeping AI momentum intact. Broad Participation — More than 65–70% of Nasdaq-100 above their 50-day MA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders. 2️⃣ Technical Path Current Level: ~$573 Immediate Resistance: $577–580 (recent intraday highs) Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595 Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600) ~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA 50d (%) above 60–65% New highs consistently > 8–10% of index components Risks Core CPI remains sticky (like the latest 3.1% YoY) which delays Fed cuts Geopolitical/tariff shocks hitting supply chains or tech exports Earnings misses from big AI names which reverses sentiment Yield spike above 4.4% on the 10-year (valuation compression) Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4 Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September. Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before YE** I posted an updated version with some corrections