Technical analysis by que about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (8/11/2025)

As we head into a New week, why am a bull on this one is that investors are eyeing the Rate-Cut Fever: Traders are pricing in a September Fed cut (~90% probability), which weakens the dollar and boosts gold demand Tariff Turbulence & Safe-Haven Flow: U.S. tariff policies—especially recent drama and subsequent exemptions—have kept gold in investors’ crosshairs Strong Fundamentals: Central banks are still shopping for gold, and ETF inflows are climbing despite elevated prices. My Tactical Summary is that Buy dip at Retest Zone (~$3,340) or deeper near $3,300–$3,280. Stop below $3,280; Target $3,415 first, then $3,500 if macro holds Cautious WatchIf CPI or risk-off sentiment hits, expect rejection near $3,380–$3,400. Only go long with a clean move above $3,400 confirmed by macro My theory is that if the If CPI comes in cooler than expected (lower inflation): Fed rate-cut expectations will jump from “likely” to “almost certain.” USD will weaken, yields will drop → Gold likely will have a bull run on that Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) could trigger a clean bounce toward $3,400+ almost immediately after the release. The mitigation of the $3,500 handle will have to take effect if the market smells an extended rate-cut cycle. But on the dovish side now is that If CPI comes in hotter than expected (higher inflation) Fed cut odds fade, USD strengthens, yields rise → Gold could drop hard. The Extreme Discount Zone (~$3,300–$3,280) will become the make-or-break demand area. If that fails, we could see a quick trip to $3,245 or lower. My final take If CPI is bullish for gold → buy retests of $3,340 or $3,400 breakout. If CPI bearish → short failed $3,340 retest or breakdown of $3,300.First Wave: Expect a knee-jerk spike toward $3,380–$3,400. Wait for the Pullback: If the price dips back to Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) and holds, buy on the bounce. Target 1: $3,400–$3,415 liquidity pocket. Target 2: Full push to $3,500 if momentum stays strong and macro tailwinds continue. Stop Loss: Below $3,320 to avoid fake-out traps. If CPI is much lower than expected, skip the pullback hunt and go straight for breakout buying above $3,400.Resumption of bullish tone: With rate-cut expectations intact and geopolitics still tense, gold looks primed for a rally back to $3,400+, eyeing $3,500+ in the coming days. Headline inflation’s softness reassures that the Fed sees downward pressure. Core CPI’s firmness adds complexity—but doesn’t derail the easing narrative. September cuts are baked in: market odds surged to ~96% chance Enter long: On a clean 4H close above $3,340–$3,350, confirming rejection of the dip. Initial Target: $3,400, followed by the strong resistance zone near $3,500. Stop: Sub-$3,320 to protect against another fakeout. If price pokes below $3,334 and holds, that could be a second-chance zone — but fading that would be pushing against the macro wind.1st Initial Target: $3,400, done. Patient is key in this game, I am still bullish till I mitigate the 3500 zone, please start trailing the profittarget reached as expected, since the Gold just reached a high resistance zone. I am expecting some pullback and will have to analyse this pair once we are done with this week's JOLTS Job Openings, Non-Farm Employment Change. After that, I can determine the direction the Gold will be heading.