Technical analysis by GoldMasterTrades about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (7/31/2025)

"High-Probability Zone Reaction & SR Flip Confirmation" Gold (XAUUSD) is currently reacting from a significant support zone after completing a bearish breakout from a well-established ascending channel. The market structure indicates both threat and opportunity depending on how price behaves around key levels ahead. 🔍 Structure Breakdown & Price Behavior: 🔹 1. Rising Channel Violation Over the past few weeks, price was comfortably moving inside a well-respected ascending channel, making higher highs and higher lows. Recently, however, price broke below the lower boundary, which is often a bearish signal—indicating a possible trend reversal or a deeper correction phase. Such breakdowns suggest buyers are losing control, and bearish sentiment is gaining strength. 🔹 2. Supply Zone Reaction & Drop Before the breakout, we observed a sharp rejection from a high point, triggering a sell-off. The price completed its move into a previously defined supply zone, resulting in a strong bearish impulsive leg that pushed it outside the channel. This move shows clear institutional distribution—where large sellers unloaded positions around that zone. 📍 Key Zone Focus: 🟩 Previous Reversal / Demand Zone (Green Box) Price is now sitting in a historically strong demand zone, which acted as a major reversal point in the past. This area is marked as the first zone of interest where buyers might step back in to defend. The green box represents a liquidity pocket where institutions previously accumulated positions—hence it’s a strong bounce candidate. 🟦 SR Interchange Zone (Blue Box) The next major level above current price is the SR Interchange zone, around 3,320–3,340. This level was previously broken and now acts as resistance. It's crucial because it represents the battle zone where the market will decide whether to continue bearish or shift back bullish. 🧠 Market Psychology & Order Flow Insight: The recent aggressive selling pressure from the highs, followed by a bounce from the demand zone, shows a shift from euphoria to fear. Sellers are active at supply, while buyers are attempting to defend the previous demand. The market is currently in decision mode—and the SR flip zone (3,320–3,340) will be the judge. A break and retest above this level signals strength and potential for a trend resumption. A failure to reclaim it would confirm bearish dominance and open doors for deeper targets. 🔄 Possible Scenarios Ahead: 📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Rejection & Breakout: If buyers successfully hold the 3,280–3,260 demand zone and push price above the SR Interchange zone, we can expect: 📍 Target 1: 3,360 (mid-term resistance) 📍 Target 2: 3,400–3,420 (previous high & upper trendline) This would confirm a fakeout from the channel and a bullish continuation pattern. 📉 Scenario 2 – Failure at Resistance & Drop Continuation: If price fails to reclaim the interchange zone, expect a retest of the green demand, followed by a potential drop toward: 📍 3,260 – local support 📍 3,240 – major support (unfilled demand below) 📍 3,220–3,200 – ultimate downside target This would solidify a bearish market structure, confirming the sellers are in control. 🧭 Key Levels To Watch: Level TypePrice RangeSignificance Supply Zone~3,400–3,420Major institutional selling area SR Interchange (Blue)~3,320–3,340Critical resistance / flip zone Current Price~3,297Watching reaction for momentum shift Demand Zone (Green)~3,280–3,260Key support / bounce zone Major Demand Pending~3,240–3,220Next support level if drop continues ✅ Conclusion: Gold is at a critical inflection point. The recent bearish breakout signals weakness, but the current support zone may provide a short-term bullish setup if buyers defend it effectively. A successful reclaim of the SR flip zone will shift sentiment bullish again. Otherwise, a deeper correction is likely. This setup is ideal for both swing and intraday traders—look for confirmation signals at the current support and SR zone before executing trades.