Technical analysis by Harry_Megat about Symbol PAXG on 7/30/2025

Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1‑hour timeframe Chart Structure & Bias * Price remains trapped in a **rising channel** (\~\$3,328–3,333), pressing against resistance near **\$3,340–3,345**. * Short-term momentum is bearish: both EMA 7 and EMA 21 sit above current price, with declining volume signaling weakening buyer strength. * Overall trend leans neutral‑to‑bearish until market clears key zones decisively. Trade Scenarios **Bearish Breakdown (Preferred)** * **Trigger:** Break and close below channel support (\~\$3,326). * **Targets:** Initial drop toward **\$3,320**, then **\$3,300**, and possibly lower if momentum intensifies. * **Invalidation:** Price pushes back above **\$3,333–3,335**, negating bearish structure. **Bullish Breakout (Conditional)** * **Trigger:** Clean breakout and sustained close above **\$3,342–3,345**. * **Targets:** Upward stretch toward **\$3,355–3,360**, and if strong, **\$3,367–3,375+**. * **Invalidation:** Fails to hold structure—retesting from above back beneath **\~\$3,338**. Macro Drivers & Market Conditions * Caution prevails pre‑Fed decision and ADP / GDP releases—market awaits cues on interest rate direction. * Safe‑haven demand has softened as global trade sentiment improves, while U.S. dollar strength continues to cap upside in gold. * Analysts favor **sell‑on‑rise positioning**, bumping up potential for controlled pullbacks. Verdict Gold is consolidating in a tight upward channel, showing short-term bearish pressure. The **bearish breakdown scenario holds the edge** unless price convincingly clears above **\$3,345** on strong volume, which could flip bias. A confirmed break below **\$3,326** sets the stage for downward moves toward **\$3,300** or lower.update XAU/USD setup: **Update on Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart** **Previous Bearish Setup Recap:** * Bearish confirmation was a **break below \$3,324** * Target 1: **\$3,312** ✅ * Target 2: **\$3,296** (not yet reached) **Current Status** * Price has reached **\$3,309**, continuing within the bearish zone. * **Momentum remains weak**, with price still under both **EMA 7** and **EMA 21** * No bullish reversal signal yet **Next Bearish Target** * If **\$3,306** breaks down cleanly: * **Watch \$3,296** as next target * Further downside may extend to **\$3,285** if selling accelerates **Reversal Watch** * Any reclaim above **\$3,324–\$3,328** could suggest the bearish move is weakening * Bullish reversal only valid above **\$3,336–\$3,340** with strong volumeupdate Bearish setup completed successfully — price hit $3,270, closing the move. Previous targets $3,312 and $3,296 reached, with extended drop exceeding expectations. Momentum remains weak; watch for potential support or next breakdown below $3,265. Trade closed.