Technical analysis by Adlercon333 about Symbol PAXG on 7/23/2025

Gold has been ranging for the next couple months and usually I am out of the market during the months of April Through July because historically these are not my best months trading XAU/USD. However you will see me posting a lot more in the coming months because my best months historically are August - December where the market really cranks up with some bigger moves. So in a summarized version below you will find what it is that i am looking at with gold. Gold (XAU/USD) has remained locked in a defined consolidation range between 3,250 (support) and 3,450–3,502 (resistance) since early April. Price has printed multiple internal falling wedge formations within this zone, indicating compression before potential expansion. 🔍 Technical Overview Range Duration: ~3.5 months Key Range: Support: 3,250 Resistance: 3,450–3,502 Compression Patterns: Multiple falling wedges breaking upwards inside the range, hinting at bullish pressure. Touch Confirmations: Both range boundaries have been tested multiple times, reinforcing validity (per Multi-Touch Confirmation). Contextual Bias: Seasonally, August–December tends to be a high-volatility trending period for Gold. 🎯 Trade Plan Inside Range: Maintain neutral bias. Execute range-to-range scalps/swing setups with clear invalidation zones. Avoid trading mid-range. Breakout Scenario (Bullish): A clean close above 3,502 triggers breakout watch. Ideal setup: Retest + 15-min flag → long continuation. Potential upside target: ~3,700 (range height extension). Breakdown Scenario (Bearish): Loss of 3,250 opens door to bearish continuation. Look for clean liquidity sweep or structure flip before committing. Initial downside target: 3,100 zone. 🛡️ Risk Notes Avoid third-touch entries in aggressive momentum unless followed by flag formation. Remain disciplined with the 80/20 confluence rule — don't let perfectionism delay entries. Always execute with pre-trade checklist and defined R:R profile. ✅ Summary Gold is at a pivotal point. The confluence of a tight multi-month range, internal compression patterns, historical breakout timing, and validated levels builds a compelling case for an imminent expansion move. Remain patient, avoid anticipation, and react to confirmed structure and price behavior.