Technical analysis by Aria-Margot-Fx about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (6/30/2025)

🟡 XAUUSD (Gold/USD) – Smart Money Analysis | Bearish Bias with Key Breakout Watch📆 Date: June 30, 2025⏰ Timeframe: 30-Minute🔍 Market Type: Range-to-Trend Transition---🔹 Overview:XAUUSD recently transitioned from a ranging structure into a clear bearish trend after several structural breaks. This chart applies Smart Money Concepts (SMC), including CHoCH (Change of Character), BIOS (Break of Internal Structure), and traditional supply/demand zones to map out high-probability setups.---🔸 Key Observations:🔺 Supply Zone (Top Red Box):A clearly defined supply zone where price consistently faced resistance.Multiple rejection wicks (red arrows) confirm institutional selling.Price failed to break above despite a bullish CHoCH attempt.🔻 Demand Zone (Bottom Blue Box):Significant buy orders evident at this level (marked by blue arrows).Multiple tests suggest it’s a critical liquidity zone — any clean break signals strong bearish momentum.🔁 CHoCH and Trendline Break:The CHoCH marked a temporary bullish structure shift but was quickly invalidated by a strong sell-off.A descending trendline confirms persistent lower highs.Recent BIOS confirms institutional intent to push lower.---📈 Current Setup:🔶 IF Breakout Confirmation (Yellow Box):Price is consolidating just above the demand zone after multiple tests.Watch for breakout structure: A confirmed candle close below the demand zone would signal continuation toward lower demand levels (targeting the 3,240.00 – 3,220.00 area).Alternatively, a strong bounce and BOS (Break of Structure) above the minor consolidation high could indicate a liquidity grab and reversal.---📊 Ichimoku Cloud Insight:Price is trading below the cloud, indicating bearish bias.The cloud is acting as dynamic resistance.Bearish TK cross is likely reinforcing the downside momentum.---✅ Potential Trading Ideas:Scenario 1 – Bearish Continuation:Entry: Below 3,260 on breakoutSL: Above 3,280 (recent high)TP1: 3,240 | TP2: 3,220Scenario 2 – Bullish Rejection & Reversal:Entry: On bullish engulfing at demand zoneSL: Below 3,260TP1: 3,280 | TP2: 3,320 (trendline retest)---💬 Final Thoughts:This chart illustrates how institutional order flow and market structure shifts (CHoCH, BIOS, Supply/Demand) can provide confluence with classic indicators like Ichimoku. The setup is clean, logical, and offers asymmetric risk-to-reward profiles depending on breakout confirmation.