Technical analysis by polarity about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (6/26/2025)

Gold is sitting right at a critical ascending trendline support—this could be the make-or-break level between wave continuation and deeper retracement. I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds. 📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 Kickoff If support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave. Look for: Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse. Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence. Volume confirmation, if available. Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections. 📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib Retracements If the trendline breaks decisively: Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high. This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure. Key Support Zones: 0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,285 0.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250 Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal. 🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket Thoughts You're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic: S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold. Two likely macro triggers: ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold. Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold. Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout. My trading plan: Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strengthBelow trendline (tight SL ~$2,300)~$2,475–$2,500 Wait/Short Bias- Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily—Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone