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Gold is near that 0.618 level, going to watch it closely from here. We might not get an entry until Sunday at 6pm NY time when market open. Key Level to watch 3249, 3194We need SPY / ES to come down for gold to gain momentum.

Gold is sitting right at a critical ascending trendline support—this could be the make-or-break level between wave continuation and deeper retracement.I have identified this as the potential end of sub-wave 2 of the final Wave 5. This makes the current support zone a high-probability long entry—as long as it holds.📈 Bullish Scenario: Sub-wave 3 KickoffIf support holds, we likely begin Wave 3 of 5, which is typically the strongest and fastest-moving wave.Look for:Breakout above the previous minor high to confirm impulse.Increasing momentum / bullish RSI divergence.Volume confirmation, if available.Target: A move past recent highs, potentially up toward $2,475–$2,500, depending on wave length projections.📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown to Fib RetracementsIf the trendline breaks decisively:Expect a retest of the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major swing low to the recent high.This would align with Wave 2 or a complex correction structure.Key Support Zones:0.5 Fib ≈ ~$2,2850.618 Fib ≈ ~$2,250Watch for price action behavior and wick rejections in that area—those will give you clues for a potential bullish reversal.🌐 Fundamental + Intermarket ThoughtsYou're thinking very well here with capital rotation logic:S&P 500 (ES) is likely in a Wave 5: If true, a correction in equities could free up capital and drive risk-off inflows into gold.Two likely macro triggers:ES reversal after ATH retest → Hedges start shifting to gold.Immediate correction in ES → Faster rotation into safe havens like gold.Watch the DXY and 10Y yields—if they weaken, that could also fuel gold's breakout.My trading plan: Long Entry - Price holds support and starts bouncing with strengthBelow trendline (tight SL ~$2,300)~$2,475–$2,500Wait/Short Bias- Trendline breaks cleanly, closes below on 4H/Daily—Look for long setup at $2,285–$2,250 zone

Based on the current structure, I believe gold is in the fifth wave of a larger Elliott Wave formation. On the higher time frame, the price action appears to be contained within a channel that resembles a leading diagonal pattern—where Wave 1 is typically the longest. From this perspective, I anticipate a potential retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the most recent upward move, or a test of the lower boundary of the channel before a reversal may occur.My trading plan involves two potential entry strategies:Enter at the 0.618 Fib retracement with a stop-loss set near the 0.881 level.Wait for a bounce off the lower channel, followed by a pullback and a breakout above the start of the pullback before entering the position.While no trader can be right all the time, having a structured plan with predefined take-profit and stop-loss levels is key to effective risk management and long-term survival in the markets.Why I Favor Technical Over Fundamental AnalysisFor those wondering why I rely more on technical analysis—especially Elliott Wave Theory—over fundamental news, here’s my reasoning:I’ve found that news and earnings-based trades often behave irrationally. A company may report strong earnings and guidance, only to see its stock sell off, fake a rally the next day, and then sell off again. Conversely, a company with poor earnings may drop ahead of the report, only to rally immediately after. These inconsistencies made it difficult to build a reliable strategy based solely on fundamental data.Over time, I observed that despite news events, the market often completes its technical structure—such as Elliott Wave formations and Fibonacci cycles—before fully reacting to news. In these cases, fundamental developments tend to accelerate or confirm the direction already implied by the technical setup, rather than override it.Gold is no exception. While it's common to assume that the S&P 500 (ES) and gold move in opposite directions due to risk-on/risk-off dynamics, I’ve noticed that they can trend in the same direction when their respective Elliott Wave structures align. This doesn't eliminate the inverse correlation concept entirely, but it highlights the importance of integrating technical analysis into a fundamentally driven view for more precise entries and exits.Ultimately, I view fundamentals as the fuel, and technicals as the engine that defines the path.

Currently we are in Wave C correction, the last wave of correction in this 12345abc structure. We got support at a YELLOW support trend line that started since Nov. Currently Wave C is in between 0.5 to 0.618 FIB Extension of Wave A. Ideally I'd like to see Wave C correct to at least to 0.618 Extension of Wave A.So if the yellow support line fail, we will see if it hold the 0.618 extension of Wave A LevelOr what's after that would be 0.786 extension of Wave A, or a 0.618 retracement of the previous 12345 Impulse wave patter. Fundamental can play into the Fib level I mentioned, we can have a slow chop down to those level until US president take office and announce his plan to improve the country's economic outlook. To simplify what I mentioned above, here is our support target for entry (trade at your own risk)$3110.96 (0.618 extension of Wave A).$3029.16 (0.618 retracement of the 12345 Impulse Wave Structure).$2942.10 (0.786 extension of Wave A).$2735.29 (0.786 retracement of the 12345 Impulse Wave Structure).$2727 (1.0 extension of Wave A)Happy trading, don't catch the falling knife.

Basic on Fib level and other Fib base time cycle method, this is my current outlook on BTC.Assuming investor don't start selling off right before or at the 100K psychological price level, with interest way going lower and better economy outlook as new president to push policy that will favor investors. We could extend to the 116.8K to 120k before a real correction to come.The MACD and EMAs are still looking very bullish on the daily chart. This is pure speculation and not financial advise.

scenario 1, we have one more wave in 4th to finish the ABCDE structure, then 5th wave starts and find support near 2200. Another scenario is that we are already in 5th that didn't quite play out and we break resistant on our way to 2800.

Will this be a C wave going down and make 1:1 with the A. or we are done correcting and going to start the next impulse? We are about to enter support zone, if we break it, I think we will head to 0.9 fib to 1.0fib(2460.19 - 2434.15)Since this is possibly the last corrective wave down, I am thinking, this can be either a Wave C within the ABC of Wave 2Or we are in sub wave 5th within Wave C, if we zoom out to let say 12hr chart. Conclusion:breaking below 2513 is my bear case (4 HR chart)1st Bull case would be break 2698 and 100 SMA2nd Bull case for a decent bull run would be break 2786 with potential rejection at 200 SMA (4HR Chart).What do you guys think? Please share your thoughts.

ETH is about to break a support line that has been trending since August 6-7th.Will this break break down to finish corrective 5th? Or will it be a fake out and rebound from here.I am looking at a potential small rebound in the mid bollinger on my chart, after that and head to my 0.382 target, I plan to exit at the first Trend Base Fib Time Zone.0.382 Target reach, position closed.

long if break 200 SMMA on the daily, and exit around the 100 SMMA.short if it reject again in the 200 SMMA area, and will short til the next potential support.If you see other alternatives please share. Good luck to all.

Scenario 1. We get stuck in between the orange dotted line and the solid yellow line to form another wedge possibly ABCDE up (Wave 4) before breaking down to start 5th that ends at where the yellow support line is. We start ABC from there, this ABC is the sub-wave 2 within corrective A.Secenario 2. We are going into sub-wave 4th that is part of sub-wave 3 that is part of Wave 1 within Corrective A. (I know this is confusing.) but it look something like this. Also see link below for 4H Chart below to see the major support line in white to see the ultimate short target.