polarity

It looks like we are entering sub wave 1 of Wave 3 of the current impulsive wave. Watch all of the usual fib extension 0.786 ~ $4025 1.00 ~ $4045 1.272 ~ $4071 1.618 ~ $4103 Good luck to all !

Gold Futures: The Alignment for the three Fibonacci Key Zone , 100 days SMMA approaching, and previous major support. Is this our key level for the first corrective up wave?It failed 0.382 fIb (yellow box on chart). 0.5 fib next ~ $3825

Gold had a good run for a while now, It looks like our corrective wave have officially started. Crossing my fingers on this, let see if we can bring this all the way down to lower trend line.

I originally went long after seeing a potential breakout setup, expecting a higher time frame Wave 5 to unfold. I had multiple chances to take profit on the way up (marked with red circles), but decided to hold since my wave count suggested there was more upside ahead. After the third rejection, I spotted a clean mini 1-2-3-4-5 structure, and once Wave 5 completed, price broke below the end of Wave 1 — which confirmed weakness. I flipped short right after exiting my long. Almost immediately, a parabolic green candle appeared around 4 AM EST, which looked suspicious to me. I held through it instead of panic-stopping, because the structure still looked like a completed impulse followed by a correction. Zooming into lower time frames gave further confidence in the five-wave completion, supporting the short setup.

The 5 wave pattern with the leading first wave have played now, now we get to play ABC corrective. I think 94k is in play. Please do not over leverage in this environment

When I was younger, my economics professor taught me something simple: “Gold tends to go up when the stock market goes down.” Back then, that seemed almost like a law of nature. Stocks fall, gold rises. One hedges the other. But as the years passed, I started to see something different. Both gold and the stock market began to climb at the same time. I’m not saying my professor was wrong. I’m saying the world has changed. We now live in an information-driven era, where news travels faster than it takes me to step out of my car. Markets no longer react to events in a slow, linear way. Reactions are instant, global, and often emotional. And that emotion... comes from all of us trying to process data we don’t fully understand. 🧠 Smart Money Behavior When the S&P 500 reaches levels that feel “too high, too fast,” smart money starts quietly buying gold. Not because they expect stocks to crash tomorrowm, but as a hedge against a bubble they can see forming before the crowd does. When the bubble finally bursts, gold is expected to run. Historically, gold has been the safe haven for people who lived through instability. In many countries, when their economy collapsed, gold was the one thing that preserved value when everything else crumbled. ⚠️ The Real Question Right now, gold has broken through almost every resistance level on the chart. Nobody truly knows how high it can go. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: “When the time comes to sell, who will be left to buy?” Without buyers, even the most loved assets can lose value fast. When both your favorite assets; stocks and gold start dropping together, that’s when conviction is tested. 🧭 The Exit Plan The chart shows momentum, yes. But momentum is not certainty, and eventually the fuel runs out. If you’re long, it’s smart to enjoy the ride but also know your exit before the crowd starts looking for theirs. Because the worst time to make a plan… is when the house is already on fire. My plan is to wait for a pull back that bounce off of a previous resistance, and see if this rocket ship take me to the penthouse at the 1.618 Fib, as it's looking like we are in some sort of wave 3 with tones of momentum. I was in a position earlier right before the New York session closed, I had a long day and decided to exit before my price target. But like all "self proclaimed" traders, as soon as you sell, you walk away from it, when you come back after 10 mins. I guess i didn't have the balls to follow my plan. My plan now is simple: wait for a pullback to a previous resistance level and see if it holds as support. If it does, and momentum stays strong, I’ll ride this rocket ship toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, which lines up perfectly with what looks like a powerful Wave 3 structure. Earlier today, right before the New York session closed, I was already in a position. I’d had a long day, so I closed out early before hitting my price target. And like every “self-proclaimed trader,” the moment I walked away, price took off exactly how I imagined. When I came back 10 minutes later... well, let’s just say I didn’t have the guts to fully trust my plan. As always trade with a stop loss, the key is to live to trade another day.

Market Structure Outlook If you zoom out to a 4-hour time frame, the current structure resembles a corrective Wave 4 within a larger 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive wave. Based on the recent price behavior, it looks like we are forming Wave E within that corrective Wave 4. This is one of the most unpredictable parts of an Elliott Wave structure. To make things trickier, ongoing geopolitical tensions could easily push the market in either direction, amplifying volatility. From a structural standpoint: We may be in an incomplete Wave E that is trending downward. If any positive or neutral news (e.g., tariff or rate-related) comes out before the pattern finishes, it could push the price upward, breaking through the upper resistance and potentially initiating Wave 5. Alternatively, what appears to be Wave E could actually be the first subwave (1) of a larger Wave 3 or Wave 5, which would confirm a new impulsive leg starting soon. Keep in mind, this is a theoretical framework based on Fibonacci levels, trendline support/resistance, and typical wave structure behavior. It is not a prediction, but a scenario map that allows for: Bullish breakout (green path) if market sentiment improves or news provides a catalyst. Continuation to the downside (red path) if no significant positive catalyst appears. Use this framework as a conditional roadmap — adjust your positioning and risk accordingly, based on how price reacts to these key levels and structure boundaries.

(Left) 2-Hour Chart: ABCDE Descending Triangle Textbook contracting ABCDE correction for Ethereum/USDT: A → B → C formed the first three legs of the correction. D pushed back up into the descending trendline but failed to reclaim structure. Now, E is the key — this is either: 1. Final flush to complete the triangle, or 2. Failed breakdown, leading to an upside break. Typical E-wave behavior: Often weak and lacks momentum (especially compared to A and C). Sometimes makes a marginal lower low below C, then reverses sharply. Volume tends to contract during the E-wave, then expand at breakout. E-wave target zones often line up with 0.618 FIB to 1.0 FIB extension of the C leg. For the chart on the right, the descending trendline If price rejects at this line, it’s the clean start of E-wave down (to finish the ABCDE). If price breaks above this line on strong volume, it invalidates the E-wave flush, likely triggering a triangle breakout early. What to watch: Breakout confirmation = strong candle close above $4,180–$4,200 on the 15-min + volume surge. Breakdown confirmation = failure near the trendline, followed by controlled drift down (E-wave style). It maybe closer to Friday before we see any sign of breaking out, if the chop continue. Happy Trading!

We should have some confirmation in our next candle to determine if we are entering another bear cycle. After multiple rejection on the 0.618 level, I had discovered a possible down trend channel that can take us down to the 39xx. bear scenario If the market remain bear in the next 2 weeks, the ultra bear target would be between the 3600-3700 range. (corrective wave 5 going down) bull secnario This bear wave going down maybe retest the 0.382 level on chart then go up and start a sub wave 3 going up, which turns my 12345 within Wave 5 on going down assumption into an ABCDE down wave that is part of the big wave 4 structure in the 4-hr time frame, which means we are in a sub structure of wave 5 in the 4HR+ time frame.

Gold's momentum don't stop. the move is slow and sort of choppy if you look a the low time frame. Can history repeat itself and poke through the line one more time? Or do liquidity dry up right before it reach and start dumping? I am bullish overall, at least until we reach the upper trend like. We might break above that line and retest and break out again. That would be my dream scenario, but as a future trader, I am only trying to capture that small momentum from point A to point B. Which is slightly above the upper line in my case. I think gold in spot will soon hit the 4200 psych level or slightly above it before we see a slow down. As always trade, only trade with money you can afford to lose, and set a stop loss, even if its below where it might wick down for liquidity.