Technical analysis by Buranku about Symbol PAXG on 6/21/2025

US FEDERAL RESERVE SPLIT: POLICY AT A CROSSROADS:The US Federal Reserve stands increasingly divided over the trajectory of interest rates, with significant macro implications. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, viewed as a top contender to succeed Jerome Powell, called for a rate cut as early as the next meeting, citing muted inflationary pressure despite Donald Trump's new tariff regime. This position contrasts sharply with Powell’s own tone, which remains cautious amid a lack of definitive economic signals.The Fed has now paused for four straight meetings following 100 bps of cuts in 2024. However, the so-called "dot plot" released this week reveals increasing internal disagreement: 10 Fed officials project two or more cuts, while seven see no rate moves at all. Futures markets reflect expectations of two quarter-point cuts in 2025, starting around October, suggesting investors believe inflation remains contained despite trade protectionism.Waller's comments underscore growing Fed discomfort with political pressure. Trump has called for 250 bps in cuts and publicly derided Powell, adding to uncertainty about the Fed's independence heading into an election cycle. While Powell emphasized “anchored long-term inflation expectations” and said divergence would “diminish with data,” the Fed’s credibility remains sensitive to both political intervention and market interpretation.SWISS INHERITANCE TAX POLL TRIGGERS CAPITAL FLIGHT RISK:Switzerland faces reputational and financial damage ahead of a national vote in November to introduce a 50% inheritance tax on estates above SFr50 million. The proposal—originating from the far-left Young Socialists—is spurring warnings of an exodus of UHNWIs, reminiscent of the UK’s non-dom exodus.Legal and private banking professionals report that families are already relocating to Italy, Greece, and the UAE, fearing that even the proposal introduces dangerous legal and fiscal uncertainty. Prominent voices in Geneva and Zurich warn this could irreparably harm Switzerland’s wealth management brand and weaken its position amid competition from zero-tax jurisdictions like Dubai and Hong Kong.SUDAN’S GOLD SURGE FINANCES WARFARE:Sudan’s ongoing civil war is being underwritten by soaring artisanal gold production, driven by record-high bullion prices. Output hit 80 tonnes in 2024, worth over $6 billion, much of it smuggled to the UAE and Russia. This illicit supply chain funds both the SAF and RSF factions in a war that has killed 150,000 and displaced 12 million people.International think tanks such as Chatham House and C4ADS warn of deeply entrenched militarized trade networks and argue that the West has failed to address mineral revenue flows with sanctions or regulatory frameworks. Analysts suggest that targeting gold supply chains could represent a powerful pressure point in ending the conflict.BBC THREATENS AI STARTUP OVER CONTENT MISUSE:The BBC has issued a legal ultimatum to Perplexity AI, accusing the $14 billion-valued US AI search engine of unlawfully scraping and reproducing BBC content. In a formal letter, the BBC demanded deletion of scraped material and financial compensation, citing reputational damage and copyright violations.This marks the UK broadcaster’s first aggressive stance against AI scraping, as public sector institutions grow wary of being used to train large language models without remuneration or consent. While Perplexity dismissed the claim as “manipulative,” this could signal a broader wave of litigation across media institutions echoing ongoing legal battles from News Corp, The New York Times, and Condé Nast.APOLLO BOLSTERS UK NUCLEAR BUILDOUT WITH £4.5BN LOAN:US private capital giant Apollo has agreed to fund £4.5bn in unsecured debt to EDF’s delayed Hinkley Point C project in Somerset, easing pressure on a project whose costs have ballooned from £18bn to £46bn, with a new opening date set for 2029. The loan, at ~7% interest, addresses a shortfall following the UK’s ejection of China General Nuclear in 2023.The deal is a win for private credit’s emergence in public infrastructure, and a major boost to the UK’s push for baseload, low-carbon energy independence. EDF will now focus on France, while UK officials prepare to approve another £11.5bn investment into Sizewell C, to be discussed at a Franco-British summit in July.MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DRIVES ENERGY VOLATILITY AND RISK REPRICING:The geopolitical crisis between Israel and Iran continues to drive extreme price movements in energy and logistics. Brent crude briefly surged to $79 per barrel, up 10% from the previous week after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Though prices have since retraced to $76.66, volatility remains elevated due to uncertainty over supply routes.VLCC charter rates from the Gulf to China more than doubled from $19,998 to $47,609 per day within a week, with owners holding out for further gains. Rates for LR2 product tankers also surged to $51,879 per day. This reflects a possible market shift away from Iran’s dark fleet toward fully insured routes, which could lead to persistent tightness in freight availability.Global markets responded to tentative diplomatic outreach. European equities rallied, with Frankfurt’s DAX up 1.3%, while the FTSE 100 fell 0.2% on weak UK retail data. The VIX dropped 8%, but investor caution remains as supply chain risks through the Strait of Hormuz—transiting 30% of global seaborne crude loom large.EU-CHINA TENSIONS ESCALATE IN MEDTECH SECTOR:The European Commission announced that Chinese companies will be excluded from public procurement of medical devices on contracts exceeding €5 million. This move, enabled by the International Procurement Instrument, comes after EU investigations concluded 87% of Chinese contracts discriminate against EU suppliers.With EU-China tensions already inflamed by tariffs on EVs and spirits, this marks a pivot toward strategic reciprocity. China condemned the measure as “protectionism” and threatened countermeasures. The Commission remains open to lifting the restrictions should Beijing provide market access parity. This signals to global investors a tightening regulatory environment for Chinese participation in critical EU sectors.US CLEAN ENERGY FACES POST-TRUMP CLIFF:The Biden-era clean energy boom is facing a rapid reversal. Major solar providers like Sunnova and Mosaic have filed for bankruptcy, as proposed Congressional tax legislation threatens to slash key residential solar credits. Industry leaders predict a 50–60% demand collapse and up to 250,000 job losses if cuts proceed.Markets are already repricing: Sunrun shares dropped 36%, Enphase 21%, SolarEdge 30%, and First Solar 19% in recent days. With at least nine bankruptcies in 2025, compared to 16 in all of 2024, the sector’s liquidity is at breaking point. The Solar Energy Industries Association warns of a “six-month cliff” ahead, as the Trump administration pivots toward oil, biofuels, and nuclear.X CORP PUSHES INTO FINANCIAL SERVICES:Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) is accelerating its push to become an “everything app” akin to China’s WeChat. CEO Linda Yaccarino announced plans to launch peer-to-peer payments, trading, and even debit cards this year via X Money, beginning in the US with Visa integration.While this could revolutionize user engagement and monetization, analysts warn of regulatory risks including compliance with anti-money laundering, KYC, and financial licensing laws. Notably, X is seeking to recover its ad business post-Musk acquisition 96% of advertisers have reportedly returned, though 2025 revenue forecasts ($2.3bn) remain far below 2022 levels ($4.1bn).MICROSOFT VS OPENAI: EQUITY BATTLE INTENSIFIES:Microsoft is reportedly prepared to walk away from equity renegotiations with OpenAI if no favorable deal is reached. While the partnership remains in “good faith,” Microsoft wants to retain its 20% revenue share up to $92bn, exclusive Azure distribution rights, and access to OpenAI’s IP pre-AGI.OpenAI needs Microsoft’s approval to finalize its for-profit restructuring, without which it risks losing funding commitments from SoftBank and others. This adds pressure to an already fragile alliance amid infrastructure capacity constraints and competition from xAI and Meta’s Llama. Market attention now shifts to whether OpenAI’s valuation premium holds if Microsoft pivots to broader AI diversification.NOVO NORDISK SURGES ON OBESITY PIPELINE STRENGTH:Novo Nordisk has announced early-stage trial results for amycretin, a new obesity drug that caused 24.3% weight loss in its injectable form, surpassing both Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. The pill version delivered 13.1% loss, with the potential to match injectables over longer durations.Novo is aiming to regain investor confidence after disappointing CagriSema trials last year. Shares, down over 50% YoY, may rebound as the company expands its anti-obesity portfolio. Analysts say amycretin could rival Lilly’s orforglipron, which showed 14.7% weight loss over 36 weeks in Phase 2 trials.NIGER NATIONALIZES URANIUM ASSETS AMID GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT:Niger has moved to nationalize the Somair uranium project, co-owned with France’s Orano, amid deteriorating diplomatic ties. The junta accuses Orano of failing to transfer funds and actively undermining the state. Compensation will be offered, but France's influence in Niger’s resource sector is likely to decline.This follows a trend of state asset seizures in the Sahel, with Mali and Burkina Faso asserting more control over mining ventures. Orano is reportedly seeking to sell its Niger assets, possibly to Russian or Chinese interests. The move adds a new geopolitical risk layer to nuclear energy supply chains.AUSTAL SHIPYARD TAKEOVER POSES SECURITY DEBATE:South Korea’s Hanwha is seeking to increase its stake in Australian defense shipbuilder Austal to 19.9%, raising national security concerns. While CFIUS has cleared the deal in the US, Australia’s FIRB may block it, given Austal’s pivotal role in naval procurement. CEO Paddy Gregg said foreign ownership would conflict with Canberra’s “sovereignty-first” strategy outlined in its 2023 defense review.While US officials favor Hanwha’s role in joint shipbuilding initiatives, Australia must weigh alliance integration against domestic capability protection. This debate reflects broader defense industrial shifts in the Indo-Pacific amid growing Chinese naval assertiveness.