Technical analysis by Senku010 about Symbol ARB: Sell recommendation (6/12/2025)

currently in a phase dominated by recent bearish momentum, having traded below a significant "Liquidity Grab" zone.Bias Assessment (1-100%)•Bearish Bias: 70%•Justification: The most compelling immediate evidence for a bearish bias is the recent negative price change (-3.22% to -3.27%). Furthermore, the current price is trading below the explicitly marked "Liquidity Grab" zone (0.4113 - 0.3994 - 0.3911). This suggests that the liquidity above has been swept, potentially for distribution, and price is now seeking lower levels.•Bullish Bias: 30%•Justification: The bullish potential primarily stems from the presence of the Bullish Order Block (+OB) and Sellside Liquidity identified below the current price.Fundamental Analysis (FA) - Token Unlock Impact1. Supply Shock: - New Tokens Unlocked : 1.1B ARB (≈$1.2B at current prices). - Historical Precedent: Past unlocks saw 15-25% drops (e.g., APE, OP). - Selling Pressure: Early investors + team tokens → forced selling. 2. Demand-Supply Imbalance: - Current volume ($200M/day) can’t absorb $1B+ sell pressure → panic dump likely. 3. Sentiment Destruction : - Retail trapped in "buy the dip" → capitulation below $0.80 possible. Unlock Day (June 16) - Avoid New Positions : Extreme volatility → spreads widen 300-500%. - Spot Scalps Only: Buy dips ONLY if: - 15-min RSI <20 AND - Volume spike >$500M in 5 mins. - Target : 3-5% bounce → exit fast. Post-Unlock (June 17+) - Long-Term Accumulation : - Buy below $0.70 if: - Daily RSI <30 - Volume dry-up (selling exhaustion). - Target 2026 recovery: $1.20–1.50. Critical Truths 1. DO NOT HOLD LONG INTO UNLOCK – Historical data shows 90% chance of double-digit drop. 2. Retail Will Be Slaughtered – Institutions front-run unlocks (they’re already short). 3. Post-Unlock Bounce ≠ Reversal – Dead cat bounce lasts 1-2 days max. Rating Justification: - Bearish 80%: Unlock supply shock + bearish structure = irreversible near-term downside. - Bullish 20%: Only from oversold bounces – not investable trends.