Technical analysis by David_financial_analyst about Symbol PAXG on 6/9/2025

(June 9) In the early Asian session, spot gold rose slightly and is currently trading around $3,307.62 per ounce. The large-scale riots in Los Angeles, USA, attracted some safe-haven buying to support gold prices.On the afternoon of June 8, local time, police officers from the Los Angeles Police Department in California, USA, wearing riot gear, withdrew after confronting protesters near the Edward Roybal Federal Building. At about the same time, the Los Angeles Police Department announced that the city was on tactical alert, allowing supervisors to keep police officers on duty in the event of an emergency or major incident and maintain a high level of staffing. It is reported that such alerts are intended to authorize police officers to work overtime.Gold price performance last weekIn the past week, gold prices rose and fell. Affected by factors such as geopolitical concerns, spot gold rose nearly 3% to around 3,380 on Monday (June 2) last week, and fluctuated in the following trading days. Due to poor performance of US economic data, it once rose to $3,402/ounce on Thursday (June 6), but with optimistic news about the international trade situation, gold prices began to give up gains. As non-agricultural data was stronger than market expectations, spot gold fell 1.22% last Friday to close at $3,311.86/ounce, with a weekly increase of about 0.65%.The US dollar rose 0.47% against other major currencies last Friday to 99.20, as data showed that US employment growth in May was better than expected, although the growth rate slowed down from the previous month, indicating that the Federal Reserve may wait longer before cutting interest rates. This factor is also one of the reasons for the decline in gold prices last Friday.Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed that employers added 139,000 jobs in May, fewer than the 147,000 in April, but more than the 130,000 increase predicted by a survey of economists.The dollar has been weighed down by President Trump's tariff policy and uncertainty about the prospects for negotiations with trading partners including China, the bill being considered by the U.S. Senate after the House passed the deficit spending and tax bill, and the trajectory of recent economic data, said Eugene Epstein, head of North American structures at Moneycorp.But Epstein said the market began to reverse some short positions on the dollar after stronger-than-expected economic data, including the employment data.After the data was released, financial markets bet that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates until September, and the probability of a September rate cut fell from 88% to 60%, with a total of two rate cuts in 2025, cutting bets on a possible third rate cut.In the coming week, the market will usher in major trade consultations and heavyweight U.S. CPI data, which investors need to pay close attention to.Kitco SurveyThe survey shows that Wall Street analysts are divided on the outlook for gold prices, while ordinary investors have become more optimistic as gold prices hold key support levels.Last week, 14 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and Wall Street analysts have a large analysis of the future trend of gold. 50% (7 experts) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 43% (6) expect a fall, and 7% (1) believe that gold prices will consolidate.Meanwhile, the Kitco online poll received 256 votes, and Main Street (retail investors) is more optimistic about the future after gold prices hold their ground. 66% (169) retail traders expect gold prices to rise in the next week, 15% (39) expect a fall, and 19% (48) believe that gold prices will continue to consolidate.Summary of analyst viewsBullish camp:Rich Checkan (Asset Strategies): Momentum is good for gold and silver. Despite possible profit-taking, gold prices are expected to rise in the coming week due to a weaker dollar, a stalled peace process in Ukraine in the Middle East, the continued impact of tariffs, and awareness of the U.S. Senate bill (increasing debt, monetary expansion and inflation).Adrian Day (Adrian Day Asset Mgmt): North American investors are willing to buy gold again (although not in large quantities), and the trend is changing.Darin Newsom (Barchart): There may be setbacks in the short term, but gold remains a safe haven for central banks and long-term investors.Jim Wyckoff (Kitco): Safe-haven demand remains, and technical charts remain bullish.Bearish camp:Adam Button (Forexlive): The White House shows signs of reaching an agreement. Gold is currently a proxy for the trade war, and the announcement of the agreement may trigger a mild sell-off.Marc Chandler (Bannockburn): Slightly better employment data and expected strong U.S. CPI in May may support a stronger dollar, and gold prices may be under pressure to fall below $3,300.Neutral/cautious view:Kevin Grady (Phoenix Futures): The decline on Friday seemed like conventional profit taking. The market is mainly dominated by speculators, and there is little interest in holding positions. Investors are waiting for direction (pay attention to CPI, trade agreements, and bond yields in the next week). If CPI approaches 2%, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points this summer (energy prices are the key to inflation).Sean Lusk (Walsh Trading): The employment report is okay, easing recession concerns, boosting the dollar and bond yields, and suppressing gold prices. There are doubts about the attractiveness of the current gold price level (strong stock market). Although geopolitical risks exist, short selling on the weekend should be cautious. If key support is lost (such as $3294-3287, especially the May low of $3150), gold prices may fall sharply. Be cautious at the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and bulls need new momentum.Focus of the week: China-US trade negotiations, inflation dataAfter a week of intensive employment data, the focus this week shifted to inflation data, and key price stability indicators will be released one after another:Monday (June 9): US New York Federal Reserve 1-year inflation expectations in May. In addition, at the invitation of the British government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During this period, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side. Investors need to pay close attention.In addition, US federal law enforcement officers continued to search for illegal immigrants in many places in Los Angeles County on the 7th, and had serious conflicts with local community residents for the second consecutive day. Investors also need to pay attention to the impact of market sentiment.Law enforcement officers from federal agencies such as the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) searched for illegal immigrants on the 6th, raided at least 7 locations in Los Angeles, including shopping malls and factories, and arrested 44 people. During the operation, law enforcement officers were surrounded by local community residents and continued to have physical conflicts.On June 7, local time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said on social media that the protests in Los Angeles are a huge national security risk, and the U.S. Department of Defense is mobilizing the National Guard to Los Angeles to support federal law enforcement officers. If the violence continues, the active Marines will also be mobilized, "they are on high alert."On June 7, U.S. President Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles, California, to deal with the riots caused by the local search for illegal immigrants. This decision triggered a domestic backlash, and the Democratic Party called it "deliberate incitement" of tensions.On June 8, local time, it was learned that the first batch of members of the California National Guard had arrived in downtown Los Angeles before 4 a.m. on the 8th. The Los Angeles Police Department issued a statement on the same day saying that the protests that occurred during immigration enforcement on the evening of the 7th had "ended peacefully" and no accidents occurred during the period. The police will continue to remain on high alert to deal with potential riots.At noon on the 8th, local time, dozens of protesters clashed with the National Guard deployed in front of the federal law enforcement agency in downtown Los Angeles, USA. Reporters saw at the scene that the National Guard kept firing tear gas to try to disperse the protesters, but the number of protesters was increasing.On June 8, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that Los Angeles has been "invaded and occupied" by illegal immigrants and criminals, and violent insurgents have gathered and attacked federal agents in an attempt to hinder the government's deportation operations. Trump instructed officials such as Secretary of Homeland Security Noem, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Attorney General Bondi to work with relevant departments and agencies to take all necessary actions to "liberate Los Angeles from the invasion of immigrants and end these immigrant riots." Trump emphasized that order will eventually be restored, illegal immigrants will be deported, and Los Angeles will regain "freedom."Wednesday (June 11): US May CPI (Consumer Price Index) - Revealing the Fed's willingness to adjust interest rates.Thursday (June 12): US May PPI (Producer Price Index) and weekly initial jobless claims.Friday (June 13): University of Michigan June consumer confidence preliminary value (the index's inflation expectations have risen significantly for two consecutive months).Pay attention to the situation in Russia and UkraineIt is worth mentioning that the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine still needs attention.According to a Reuters report on the 7th, anonymous US officials revealed that the United States believes that Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's drone attack on a Russian military airport on May 31 has not yet been truly implemented. According to information disclosed by US officials, Russia's retaliation may be a major, multi-pronged blow.Sources said that the timing of Russia's comprehensive response is unclear and is expected to be implemented within a few days. Earlier on the 6th, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that in response to Ukraine's "terrorist acts", the Russian army launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian targets.According to a recent report by the US "Washington Post", a source revealed that the Ukrainian National Security Agency had considered sending unmanned boats hidden in containers to attack Russian ships at sea. But so far they have not launched these operations.Another person familiar with the matter speculated that Russia may use missiles and drones to launch attacks. A Reuters source in the Western diplomatic community said that Russia's retaliation may target important targets, such as government buildings.Military analyst Michael Kaufman believes that Moscow may try to strike the headquarters of the Ukrainian Security Service, which played a key role in Operation Spider Web, or the offices of other regional intelligence agencies, and may use medium-range ballistic missiles to carry out the attack. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD