Technical analysis by David_financial_analyst about Symbol PAXG: Buy recommendation (6/5/2025)

Spot gold traded around $3,380 during the day, not far from the multi-week high hit on Tuesday. Currently, the market remains on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, and gold bulls continue to wait for a breakthrough under the support of fundamentals.Fundamentals 👇The latest economic data released by the United States was weak overall, providing short-term support for gold. ADP employment data showed that only 37,000 new jobs were added by private enterprises in the United States in May, a new low since March 2023; at the same time, the ISM service PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9, marking the first time it has fallen into a contraction range since June last year. The weakening of both employment and service data has strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates in 2025.At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with both two-year and ten-year yields falling to their lowest levels since early May, reflecting recognition of the future path of monetary easing. The widening fiscal deficit and market concerns about Trump's new round of tax cuts have also put pressure on the dollar, further boosting the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold.In addition, global geopolitical risks are also heating up. According to Reuters, the situation in Ukraine has not eased, and the United States has vetoed the UN's proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza for the fifth time, which has kept the safe-haven demand for gold at a high level. Before Friday's non-farm payrolls report, the market was generally cautious, and the long and short forces were temporarily tug-of-war.Technical side: 👇🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀From the daily chart, gold is currently oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and is still in the consolidation stage of the upward trend. After breaking through $3,300, the price was temporarily blocked at $3,430, which is the previous high area and the short-term resistance corresponding to the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. Analysts believe that if the subsequent volume breaks through $3,430, it is expected to re-challenge the high of $3,499.83.In terms of MACD indicators, the fast line (DIFF) and the slow line (DEA) are above the zero axis, showing a mild golden cross, and the bar chart slightly turns red, and the momentum begins to repair, suggesting that there is a possibility of further strengthening in the short term.The relative strength index (RSI) is currently hovering around 58, and there is no overbought signal, indicating that the market sentiment is relatively neutral and bullish, leaving room for subsequent increases.From the overall structure, gold shows an obvious box-shaped oscillation pattern, with the support level referring to the $3,300 mark and the resistance level focusing on the $3,430 level; once it breaks through, the upper space is expected to open up further.Market sentiment observation 👇Current market sentiment is cautious but not pessimistic. Although the bulls lack decisive promotion, the overall position still shows a risk-averse preference. The market's expectations for the turning point of US interest rate policy are becoming increasingly clear, and the precautionary sentiment against geopolitical events is also heating up. Although traders remain on the sidelines before the release of NFP data, analysts believe that the pullback is regarded as a bargain hunting opportunity, indicating that the market consensus still tends to be bullish on gold in the medium term.Outlook for the future👇Short-term outlook: The short-term trend of gold depends on the performance of NFP data on Friday. If the non-farm data continues to be weak, it will trigger gold to break through the resistance of $3,430 and quickly test the previous high of $3,499; on the contrary, if the data is unexpectedly strong, there may be a possibility of a retracement of the support of $3,300.Medium- and long-term outlook: Against the backdrop of increasing global political uncertainty and strengthening expectations of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve, the probability of gold maintaining an upward trend is relatively high, especially under the expectation of marginal easing of US dollar liquidity. Gold's dual role as a safe-haven and asset hedging tool will continue to be favored by the market. XAUUSD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD