Technical analysis by GoldFxMinds about Symbol PAXG on 5/31/2025
"Momentum Meets Maturity: Gold Faces Its Final Trap?"🔹 Overview:Gold has delivered an explosive rally through Q1–Q2 2025, breaking all structural ceilings and printing a new All-Time High (ATH) at 3500 in April. May followed with aggressive bullish continuation, but failed to break that high, closing with a strong body but signs of momentum cooling. We are now trading inside a premium liquidity zone, where retracement becomes increasingly probable.🔹 Monthly Structure & Bias🔎 ComponentStatus / DetailCurrent Price Range3285–3310Market BiasBullish, but overextendedATH Confirmed3500 (April 2025)May High3435 – did not break ATHStructureHH + BOS above 2108 = bullish macroEMA TrendFull EMA 5/21/50/100/200 bull lockRSILikely near overbought (watch June)🔹 Refined Monthly Zones – GoldFxMinds Precision📍 Zone TypeKey LevelsExplanation🔺 Premium SELL Zone #13335 – 3368First rejection layer inside premium. Previous wick reactions.🔺 Premium SELL Zone #23368 – 3405Final inducement from May. Ideal for stop hunts and traps.🔺 ATH Trap Zone3405 – 3500Full liquidity cluster around ATH. Extreme caution here.🔹 Local Monthly Support3112 – 3098Minor support below May’s PNL. First reaction floor.🔹 FVG/OB Buy Zone3060 – 3038Valid monthly FVG + OB zone. Stronger confirmation area.🔵 Macro Swing Support2638 – 2612Monthly OB and last HL before the 3000+ breakout. Solid base.🔵 BOS Origin / HL Base2592 – 2570True origin of macro bullish structure. Swing trader interest.⚫ Equilibrium Major #12280 – 2265Fibonacci 50% of full macro range + EMA50. Potential macro reentry.⚫ Equilibrium Major #22245 – 2212Liquidity from past accumulation zones (2023–2024).🔹 Fibonacci ContextFull swing: 1045 (2015 low) → 3500 (ATH April 2025)Price is now pressing between the 1.618 and 2.0 extension zone, ideal area for macro distribution.The 50% equilibrium of the macro range sits at ~2240, aligning with EMAs and historical demand.🔹 Liquidity Analysis✅ Buy-side liquidity swept at every major milestone: 2108 → 2500 → 3000 → 3300🎯 Final liquidity pool lies above 3435 into 3500 → this is where many late buyers could be trapped.💧 Sell-side liquidity sits cleanly around 3110 → 2590 → 2240 — these are the likely draw targets if correction begins.🔹 Macroeconomic Context (May–June 2025)📰 Federal Reserve: Markets expect a possible rate cut in Q3, which still supports gold, but with less surprise.🌍 Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global instability continues to back the gold rally.🧮 Equity Overextension: Rotation from risk assets to safety could fuel one more push — or trigger a sharp correction.💹 Inflation Outlook: Any spike in CPI may trigger further bullish flows — but positioning is already saturated.🔚 Summary – What's Next?✅ Trend: Still bullish, but at the final stages of maturity⚠️ Risk: Sharp rejection likely near 3435–3500📌 Scenarios to watch:Push into 3435–3500: Final inducement → possible sharp rejectionBreak below 3110: Opens path to 3038 or even 2630Major swing buys only valid around 2638 or 2240, if macro retracement triggers🧠 GoldFxMinds Final Word:The monthly chart shows strength, but we are now deep inside premium, under the shadow of a freshly printed ATH. If June opens with a wick or false breakout above 3435, expect a high-probability retracement toward 3110 or deeper.This is not the time to chase buys blindly — but rather to position smartly at real OBs and FVGs, where structure confirms.
