Technical analysis by coachmirandaminer about Symbol PAXG on 5/29/2025

Gold and Bitcoin: Macro-Economic Correlations, Scarcity, and Resilience in Times of Uncertainty by Coach Miranda MinerIn the ever-evolving tapestry of global markets, few assets have commanded as much attention, debate, and reverence as gold and bitcoin (BTC). Both have emerged as symbols of scarcity and resilience, standing against inflationary pressures and systemic monetary risks. Yet, while one asset has roots in millennia of economic history, the other—Bitcoin—has in barely over a decade carved its niche as “digital gold.”Let’s delve deeper into their macro-economic correlation, time tolerance for holding, and their distinct roles as inflation hedges, supported by historical data and market dynamics.1. Scarcity: The Foundation of Trust Gold:Historically, gold has been the epitome of finite supply. The World Gold Council estimates total above-ground gold stocks at around 208,874 tonnes (2024), with new supply growing annually at roughly 1.5%.Gold’s price reflects its scarcity: from $35 per ounce in 1971 (when the US abandoned the Bretton Woods system) to an all-time high of $2,450 per ounce in 2024, reflecting a 6,900% appreciation over five decades.Bitcoin (BTC):Coded with a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, with over 19.7 million mined as of 2025, Bitcoin embodies digital scarcity.The halving cycles (every ~4 years) further restrict new supply, reducing miner rewards from 50 BTC (2009) to 3.125 BTC per block (2024).Price journey: from $0.003 in 2010 to a peak of $73,750 in March 2024, before consolidating around $107,000–$110,000 in mid-2025.2. Macro-Economic Context and Correlations Inflation Hedge:Both gold and Bitcoin have historically rallied during periods of monetary easing and high inflation. For instance:Gold surged post-2008, as central banks adopted quantitative easing (QE); it peaked near $1,900/oz in 2011.Bitcoin rose from $5,000 in March 2020 to over $68,000 by November 2021, fueled by QE, pandemic relief packages, and inflation fears.Real Yields and Liquidity:Gold’s price often inversely correlates with real yields (nominal yield minus inflation). As real yields drop (due to loose monetary policy), gold becomes more attractive.Bitcoin’s price shows liquidity sensitivity to global M2 money supply. When central banks inject liquidity, Bitcoin rallies; when tightening occurs (like in 2022–23), corrections follow.3. Time Tolerance for Holding: Patience Rewarded Gold:A long-term investor in gold (e.g., since 1971) has enjoyed CAGR ~7.9%, but with long consolidation periods—like the 20-year sideways move from 1980–2000, where prices stagnated between $400–$600/oz.The recent breakout above the 2011 high of $1,900/oz, reaching new highs near $2,450, demonstrates gold’s cyclic nature—rewarding the patient holder.Bitcoin:BTC's volatility is far higher. Short-term corrections of 50–85% have been common (e.g., 2022 bear market, down from $69K to $15.5K).However, long-term holders (e.g., 5–10 years) have seen compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) of >100%.The current consolidation (~$107K, 2025) mirrors gold’s historic breakout pattern (as seen in the late 2000s for gold).4. Key Price Levels: Historical MilestonesAssetYearPrice MilestoneGold1971$35/ozGold1980$850/oz (Volcker shock, inflation peak)Gold2011$1,900/oz (post-GFC rally)Gold2024$2,450/oz (new all-time high)Bitcoin2010~$0.003Bitcoin2013$1,000Bitcoin2017$19,800Bitcoin2021$69,000Bitcoin2024$73,750Bitcoin2025~$107,0005. Why Both Assets Matter Today Scarcity in a Fiat World:As central banks continue expansive monetary policies—global M2 reaching record highs—investors are increasingly drawn to assets that cannot be "printed."Bitcoin’s Unique Appeal:Borderless, censorship-resistant, and instantly transferable, BTC offers unique properties for a digital age.Gold’s Enduring Legacy:Despite Bitcoin’s rise, central banks still hold over 35,000 tonnes of gold in reserves. It remains the ultimate collateral.6. Conclusion: Time, Tolerance, and TrustWhether one holds gold through turbulent decades or Bitcoin through volatile months, both assets demand a unique time tolerance and conviction in scarcity-driven value. Their charts, mirroring similar breakout patterns—gold’s multi-decade wedge and Bitcoin’s rising triangle—suggest that patient holders, willing to weather macro-economic storms, may find themselves handsomely rewarded.In a world where inflation erodes fiat, and monetary policies grow unpredictable, gold and Bitcoin stand as anchors of trust. Their trajectories remind us that while history rhymes, the future favors those who understand the interplay of scarcity, macroeconomics, and resilience.🔗 Stay Ahead of the Curve with Coach Miranda Miner!For expert insights, trading strategies, and in-depth market analysis, follow Coach Miranda Miner across platforms:🌐 Website: globalmirandaminer.com/📘 Facebook: facebook.com/coachmirandaofficial🐦 Twitter (X): x.com/MiningMiranda🌟 OKX for Trading: okx.com/join/DEXGMMGStay informed. Stay resilient. Invest wisely.