Technical analysis by Swissquote about Symbol BTC on 5/27/2025

The bitcoin price has been on a solid uptrend since the beginning of April, a move we've been deciphering here on a regular basis. You can follow our Swissquote account to make sure you don't miss our next analytical updates on BTC and altcoins.The new question we're asking is simple: with the bitcoin price having just set a new all-time high, is this bullish movement sustainable for the rest of the spring and into the summer? The answer: yes, if and only if the positive correlation with global M2 liquidity continues.1) The positive correlation between the bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity is very strong this cycle. Let's look first at how global liquidity M2 is calculatedM2 global liquidity is determined by adding together the M2 monetary aggregates of the world's main economic powers, namely the United States, China and the European Union. The M2 aggregate includes current bank accounts and liquid financial savings accounts of less than $100,000. It therefore represents the liquidity of bank accounts worldwide, which is immediately available for investment in the stock market.The two illustrations below show that the US M2 is strongly bullish and close to setting a new all-time record. When calculating global M2, not only is the US M2 decisive, but also the Chinese M2 (which set a new all-time record this year) and the European M2, which is bullish thanks to the European Central Bank's regular rate cuts.The histogram below shows the trend and absolute value of the US M2 money supply The table below explains how global M2 liquidity is calculated. It essentially consists of US M2, Chinese M2, European M2 and the underlying trend of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. 2) Global M2 liquidity is making yet another all-time high, so if the positive Bitcoin/Liquidity correlation continues, BTC could develop a bullish trend through to mid-summer.Mathematical studies of linear correlation show that over the current BTC cycle, the linear correlation coefficient between global M2 liquidity and the bitcoin price is 0.80 when global M2 is projected 12 weeks into the future. This strong positive correlation therefore indicates that BTC has a good probability of following the underlying trend in global M2. The latter has just made a new all-time high, so with the 12-week time lag, this suggests that BTC could continue its upward momentum until midsummer. Of course, even in an uptrend, there can be short-term corrections and retracements.The chart below shows daily Japanese candlesticks for the BTC price, overlaid with M2 global liquidity projected 12 weeks into the future (the average time observed for global liquidity to flow into risky assets on the stock market). DISCLAIMER:This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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