Technical analysis by NextElliott about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (5/21/2025)

📉 XAUUSD Market Outlook – Potential Pullback AheadDate: May 21, 2025Analyst: NextElliottInstrument: XAUUSD (Gold)Current Price: $3,307Outlook: Short-Term Bearish BiasTrade Horizon: 1–4 DaysTimeframes Observed: 4H / Daily🔍 Market OverviewGold (XAUUSD) recently extended its rally, reaching a high near $3,310 after a strong bullish leg that began earlier this month. However, current price action indicates signs of momentum exhaustion near this region—aligning with a confluence of technical resistance levels and psychological barriers.As Gold consolidates below recent highs, we anticipate a corrective pullback toward the $3,240 area, offering potential for short-term bearish trades or long-term re-entry opportunities.📐 Key Technical Levels🔻 Resistance Zone (Recently Tested)$3,305 – $3,320:Fib extension from prior swingPrevious intraday rejection levelsOverbought RSI on 4H🔻 Expected Support / Target Zone$3,240 – $3,220:Previous breakout zone38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement of latest rally20EMA & volume shelf on 4H🔄 Trend & Structure AnalysisGold remains in a bullish macro structure, but current price is extended short-term.Price appears to be forming a corrective Wave 4 or descending channel, likely targeting $3,240–$3,220 before another leg up.A confirmed break below $3,290 could act as a trigger for downside momentum.📊 Momentum & VolumeRSI Divergence observed on 4H and Daily, signaling weakening buying pressure.Volume tapering on recent highs suggests distribution rather than accumulation.MACD histogram beginning to roll over on 4H—early signal of trend shift.🧭 Trade Scenario Outlook🔴 Bearish Scenario (Active Bias)Trigger: Break and 1H/4H close below $3,290Target Zones:TP1: $3,260TP2: $3,240TP3: $3,220Stop Loss (Short Entries): Above $3,320Invalidation: 4H close above $3,330 (would suggest continuation)🛠️ Strategic Notes & Risk ManagementIdeal for short-term traders looking to capitalize on retracement before trend resumes.Long-term bulls may monitor $3,240–$3,220 for potential re-entry after consolidation.Use volatility-adjusted stop losses and consider scaling out partial profits on approach to support levels.📌 ConclusionWith Gold trading near its short-term peak at $3,307, a pullback toward $3,240 is becoming increasingly probable as overextended conditions begin to unwind. This retracement is expected to be corrective, not reversal-based, within the broader uptrend. Traders should watch for bearish confirmations below $3,290 and act accordingly, while positioning for renewed bullish opportunities near major support.