Technical analysis by AwesomeOscDad about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (5/16/2025)

🟡 XAUUSD Elliott Wave Analysis (15M TF) – Wave (4) Forming, Short Setup in Play📅 Date: May 16, 2025📈 Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD) – 15M Chart🔍 Technique: Elliott Wave, SNR, Fibonacci, AO Convergence✅ Wave Count SummaryWe have a clean 5-wave Elliott structure unfolding:✅ Wave (1), (2), and extended Wave (3) are completed.🔄 Price is now in a Wave (4) pullback phase.🔽 Anticipating a final push down for Wave (5).🔍 Wave (4) Confluence Zone (Short Setup)Price is currently approaching a strong confluence zone around 3196, which includes:📌 Confluences at 3196:🔴 SNR (Support-Turned-Resistance): Historical reaction level🌀 Fibonacci Retracements:0.618 of wave (3) = 3171.61.618 Fib Extension (minor internal leg) = 3198.81Several Fibo clusters between 3195–3200📐 Dominant Break occurred previously → retest likely🕯️ Bearish Reaction Expected: Monitor for reversal candlesticks near this level💡 This is the ideal entry zone for Wave (5) shorts.📉 Wave (5) Bearish Target ProjectionsUsing Fibo projections from Wave (3) to (4), expect:Target LevelDescriptionPrice Zone🎯 TP1100% of Wave (1) extension~3154.80🎯 TP2Full Wave (5) extension zone~3135–3140📊 AO Divergence may signal Wave (5) completion as momentum fades.💼 Trade Setup Idea(For educational purposes – follow your own strategy & confirmation rules)ParameterValueEntry Zone3195–3198 (SNR + Fibo)Stop Loss3206–3210 (above structure)TP13155 (safe zone)TP23135 (extended target)Risk–Reward~1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on SL📌 Confirmation Tips:Wait for bearish engulfing or pin bar near 3196.Watch for AO turning red = sign of bearish momentum resuming.🧠 ConclusionWave (4) looks to be maturing near the 3196 SNR/Fibo cluster, with a bearish reaction expected to kickstart Wave (5). This setup offers a great R:R opportunity if confirmed by price action. Patience and confirmation are key — don’t front-run until a rejection forms.📈 Let the chart do the talking. Trade what you see.