Technical analysis by CassianDrake about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (5/4/2025)

Bitcoin enthusiasts often dream of mass adoption, corporate treasuries, and state-backed investments driving its price to astronomical levels. But let’s examine the actual numbers behind these claims.🔹 The $1M Bitcoin FantasyMany believe Bitcoin will reach $300K, $500K, or even $1M. But what does that actually require?💰 Bitcoin’s current circulating supply is approximately 19.5 million coins.💰 At $830K per coin, the total market cap would be $16 trillion—which is:✅ More than China’s entire GDP ($6T)✅ 5x the market cap of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google & Tesla combinedTo put this into perspective, the entire global crypto market cap is currently around $2.99 trillion. Expecting Bitcoin alone to hit $16 trillion is beyond unrealistic.🔹 Why Government & Corporate Adoption Won’t Skyrocket PriceBitcoin believers often cite governments and corporations buying Bitcoin as proof it will moon. But here’s the reality:⚠️ State & corporate purchases are OTC (Over-The-Counter) deals—they do not impact market prices like retail speculation.⚠️ Governments negotiate strategically, they don’t impulsively buy at public prices to pump the asset.⚠️ Treasury holdings do not guarantee higher prices—they only serve as reserves, not market drivers.State adoption might increase legitimacy, but it won’t magically push Bitcoin past gold or global GDP levels.🔹 Bitcoin’s Volatility vs. Gold’s StabilityBitcoin is often compared to gold as a store of value, but its history tells a different story:📉 Bitcoin has crashed over 80% multiple times—far from a stable asset.📉 Extreme volatility makes it unreliable for wealth preservation.📉 Liquidity issues create uncertainty, making it impractical for widespread adoption as money.Gold, by contrast, has proven stability for centuries, with intrinsic value, industrial use, and universal acceptance.🔹 Bitcoin Will NOT Absorb the Global EconomySome claim Bitcoin will replace fiat, surpass gold, and absorb trillions in wealth. But the economic reality is:❌ Bitcoin remains speculative, driven by market sentiment, not intrinsic value.❌ No nation will abandon fiat for Bitcoin—they will regulate, integrate, but never replace sovereign currency.❌ Bitcoin lacks industrial utility—gold has actual use in electronics, medicine, and aerospace.🔹 The Crypto Dream vs. Financial RealityCrypto thrives on believers, feeding them narratives that sound appealing but don’t match real-world economic fundamentals.Bitcoin is not overtaking gold.Bitcoin is not absorbing global wealth.Bitcoin is not making every holder a millionaire.Numbers don’t lie, but ignoring them won’t change reality. When the hype fades, speculative investors will face the harsh truth: Bitcoin is not a guaranteed path to riches—it’s a high-risk, volatile asset that operates in an unpredictable market.