Technical analysis by F0rexBorex about Symbol PAXG on 4/19/2025

🔍 Short-Term Forecast for XAU/USDCurrent Market Context:Price: $3,227.375 (currently)Recent High: Around $3,328Structure: Strong bullish rally with minor retracement. Currently consolidating under a key resistance zone.Fib Levels: Price has respected Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, particularly 0.618 and 0.786.Volume Delta: High macro delta volume at 19.67%, indicating aggressive buying.Forecast:Bullish Bias short-term with room for a minor pullback to retest lower support zones around $3,200–$3,180 before continuation higher.If $3,328 is broken convincingly, we could see a rally toward $3,345, $3,360, and beyond.📈 Potential Trading SignalsBuy Signals:Break and Retest of $3,328 Resistance – Watch for a clean break above $3,328 and retest as support to initiate a long position.Pullback to $3,200–$3,180 Zone – This is a high confluence area of previous support + Fib level (near 0.382–0.5). Bullish reversal candlestick patterns here could be a buy trigger.EMA Bounce – The 21 and 50 EMA are acting as dynamic support. A bounce from these EMAs could be a signal for continuation upward.Sell Signals:Failure to Break $3,328 With Strong Bearish Rejection – Look for long wicks and engulfing candles near resistance.Break Below $3,180 – Could trigger a sharper correction to $3,150 and possibly $3,100.📊 Upcoming Economic Data & Impact on XAU/USDKey Events to Watch:U.S. Fed Commentary & Rate Decision ExpectationsU.S. CPI / PPI / Core Inflation ReportsNon-Farm Payroll (NFP)Geopolitical Risks (Middle East, Ukraine, etc.)Influence:Hawkish Fed Data (higher inflation, strong jobs) → Stronger USD → Bearish for XAU/USD.Dovish Signals (cooling inflation, rate cut hints) → Weaker USD → Bullish for XAU/USD.Geo-Risk Escalation → Gold rallies as a safe haven.📋 Day Trading Plan for XAU/USDTrading Style: Scalping to Intraday SwingTimeframe Focus: 15min, 1hr, 4hrIndicators Used:21 EMA, 50 EMAFibonacci Retracement/ExtensionPrice Action (Engulfing, Doji, Pin Bars)Volume & Delta VolumesKey S/R Zones🔹 Bullish Setup (Buy the Dip Strategy):Entry: $3,200–$3,180Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or pin bar + bounce from EMATP1: $3,245TP2: $3,280SL: $3,172 (below structure)🔹 Breakout Strategy (Momentum Trade):Entry: Break of $3,328 and close aboveConfirmation: 15m or 1h candle close above with increased volumeTP1: $3,345TP2: $3,360SL: $3,312🔻 Bearish Setup (Fade the Resistance):Entry: Rejection of $3,328 zoneConfirmation: Long upper wick or bearish engulfing candleTP1: $3,280TP2: $3,250SL: $3,335📌 Risk Management TipsRisk max 1–2% per trade.Adjust position size according to volatility (ATR).Use alerts around key levels: $3,200, $3,328, $3,345.Avoid trading major news releases without clarity.🗺️ XAU/USD Day Trading Roadmap (Short-Term)✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (Breakout Play)📍 Key Level to Watch:→ Resistance at $3,328🟢 If price breaks and closes above $3,328:Enter LONG on retest of $3,328 as support.TP1: $3,345TP2: $3,360TP3: $3,382SL: Below $3,312📊 Confirmation Needed:Bullish 15m/1h close above resistanceIncreasing volume🔄 Scenario 2: Range Play / Rejection from Resistance📍 Key Range:Top: $3,328Bottom: $3,200–$3,180🔴 If price rejects $3,328:Consider SHORT entries from resistanceTP1: $3,280TP2: $3,250SL: Above $3,335📊 Confirmation Needed:Bearish engulfing or pin bar near $3,328Divergence or decreasing volume🟢 Scenario 3: Buy-the-Dip (Support Bounce)📍 Buy Zone:→ $3,200–$3,180 support zone (confluence of Fib & EMA)🟢 If price pulls back and holds above $3,180:Go LONG on bullish candleTP1: $3,245TP2: $3,280SL: Below $3,172📊 Confirmation Needed:Pin bar, hammer, or bullish engulfingVolume bounce or EMA support hold🔻 Scenario 4: Bearish Breakdown📍 Critical Support:→ $3,180🔴 If price breaks & closes below $3,180:Go SHORT on retest of $3,180 as resistanceTP1: $3,150TP2: $3,100SL: Above $3,190📊 Confirmation Needed:Clean break + bearish volume spikeEMAs cross bearish🧠 Bonus Tips:🕓 Best sessions: London and New York overlap📅 Check calendar: U.S. CPI, PPI, and NFP are gold movers🧯 Avoid overtrading. Let price come to your key zones.🎯 Use alerts at $3,180, $3,200, $3,328Running 731 pips from buy entry