Technical analysis by Binary_Forecasting_Service about Symbol PAXG: Sell recommendation (4/5/2025)

All the details necessary to understand this draft, I have written in closing notes of DRAFT #11 (previous draft). On an ALL TIME BASIS, it's not obvious top is in. However, the record high volumes (across all markets, or otherwise understood as cross-market volatility) has me convinced that top is in and we are going down to 2163 BY SEPTEMBER 26TH. All that said, price MUST STILL RESOLVE THE ABSOLUTELY BULLISH POSTURE BY FOLLOWING RED ROUTE IN CHART ABOVE with 2 outstanding requirements:1) make it down to 2975 or less (as deep as UNDER 2955) by London open on Tuesday2) make it back up to 3115 or more ( as high as 3131) by London open on Wednesday At this point, it IS STILL NOT OBVIOUS PRICE WILL WILL GO DOWN, but that's enough to resolve the 2-way vol for a crushing 550 point drop to 2580 (3130-2580=550) BY NEW YORK SESSION ON MONDAY APRIL 28TH. AS USUAL, WILL ADD MORE WITH TIME.9:55 PM ET, for the record...1) SP 500 topped first on 2/19 and is now in bear market 2) has not filled the gap down despite gold now above Fri close3) and gold topped 4/24) so what is obvious ???5) spx trend still DOMINATING6) so I feel pretty good about this thesis7) with two things worth saying: A) IF THERE IS A DOWN SHIFT, that means FASTER TO FLOOR B) June is already at 2400, faster MEANS JUNE BOTTOM8) which was basically this route before...9) I changed it to September10) what that also means full recovery by11) end of year1) Rajid asked me about why I went from long to short...2) bc spx trend was dominating3) I have first clue that sp 500 MAY HAVE BOTTOMED4) so what does that mean?5) blue route to 37776) but THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SPX CALMING DOWN7) I have 1st clue only, NOT SOLID EVIDENCE8) so be aware04/08 - 8:06 AM ET. Much was revealed yesterday between VIX, ES, GC and by extension SI.1) will write a lot today to update everything2) dont have time for another 2 hours3) but basically, VIX-gold rejected by dollar liquidity requirements4) so we are AN EVEN MORE BEARISH RED ROUTE TO JUNE5) and time is almost out for bulls to change this6) bc all likely bull routes are dead except one4) so the drafted blue hi-lights were in anticipation of a market-wide bounce5) THAT IS OBVIOUSLY NOT WHAT WE HAVE:6) chart above left side is gold that has rejected blue route 7) and the 3115-3131 ceiling now looks like 3072 AT BEST8) AND IT'S NOT AT ALL OBVIOUS THAT PRICE CAN GET ABOVE 3037 9) meanwhile, SPX trades 5288 OR 9.44 % OFF THE LOW STILL UNDER 5400 limit10) that price needs to get furiously above to destroy the super bearish setup 11) gold is trading 3013 as is PAST DUE FOR ITS BOUNCE UP 12) meaning as of right now, there's simply no reason at all to expect gold to13) turn bullishly and get out of this crash setup to June14) SURE VIX 60 is good for a bottom in the S&P 500, but that's A BOTTOM, NOT THE BOTTOM 15) there's no evidence yet to say that this 9.4% bounce is anything more than a technical bounce16) in chart above, this idea that VIX 60 means we are in the clear?17) I need to see SP 500 above 5500, AND HOLD TO MAY18) to take this idea seriously 19) so after thorough examination of what has happened 20) the base case looked like where I go to at the near the end of DRAFT 1121) that is gold furious crash to mid June22) I am out of time to comment a lot on silver23) so let me say this, there's 4 levels silver is aiming for 24) $21, $18, and $14.40 are the most obvious25) under 14.40 I cannot see how $11.55 COVID LOW CAN HOLD26) and that means $9.20 silver27) whatever it's going to be, I only have enough time to focus on gold and comment on S&P 50028) I will pick up silver when it needs to be picked to up29) AND NOW IS NOT THE TIMEON THE OTHER HAND.... 1) I just started new work I accepted last week2) despite the important situation happening in financial markets3) I could care less because interest in my work is not growing4) so with each passing day, I do not have reasons to keep this up5) so if you are reading this and interested in my work6) join my group and tell how to continue doing this7) have a good one12:04 PM ET, so that bounce doesn't seem like it's coign1) so in chart above it's not going to look like that 2) I think more like this, I am just not done with drafting:12:37 PM ET, it looks like STRAIGHT TO 2790 from here3) that's what I see4) I have no time to add any more3:51 PM TUESDAY WRAP UP, WHERE WE ARE NOW:1) so red route in chart at top is DRAFT 12 you are reading... 2) with SEPTEMBER LOW was reasonable route 3) when I first drafted, I drafted it in black here from notes in DRAFT 11:4) we are much closer to original draft only except worse:5) in chart above there are five arrows6) we are at first arrow, the break of 2950 7) which leads to 2780 THIS TIME NEXT WEEK 8) that's the second arrow arrow which will slow the move for a bit9) before heading for what should be 2400-2500 10) somewhere in there, so let's just say 2450, bc 2400 seems a bit deep 11) and that by MAY 7TH, and today is APRIL 8TH12) that's a wrap13) in the meantime, S&P500 has surrendered 300 points since the 5310+ high this morning14) now trading 5010-ish as I type15) 7:42 PM ET, I am not sure it will take that long16) I do not have good reasons why it's not this week17) meanwhile gold trades 2973 in Tokyo as I type18) and the last bull route is disappearing right now 19) especially if bears make it under 29526:43 AM so with treasury market signaling liquidation1) everything screams incoming liquidity crisis2) but price is spending too much time above 30373) the next move should be drop under 29204) but bears only have about 6 hours before odds go to 50/505) between crash and sideways for 2-3 days6) if I read everything together, the call is incoming crash7) but price has to respect trend, so above 3055 means wait it out12:35 PM, I don't have enough time to do this right.1) there's several diametrically opposite things going on2) and I can't call this right doing it part time3) and full time service will not come close to my earnings4) so the right thing to do is to stop5) but let's wrap this up right1) replay chart at top2) it's still a weaker red04/09, 12:41 AM, 3122.65 after scratching 3131...1) I'm going to give you my entire thoughts on this 2) but first replay chart at top 3) AND THEN READ THE INTRO including the first chart after I said "will add with time"4) be aware that SPX is trading 5450-ish as I type with another furious spike today after 5) Trump's 90-day extension whatever+125% China tariffs6) and please be aware of what this means vs what Trump is trying to do7) ultimately there are two outcomes here and they are both in chart at top8) and I do not know how to call this because the last two surprise moves 9) both originated from Trump himself10) and ultimately I can only call it if I dedicate myself fulltime11) and that I cannot do because my time has been bought and paid for12) but what can be said is that if bear route is true, it MUST BE STRAIGHT DOWN FROM HERE13) because bears have fulfilled the two conditions I named in chart at top14) so they are totally setup for their move down but must move soon 15) long story short, if they are going to do it, it should be entirely obvious 16) and run along red route in chart at top down before exceeding it17) the other outcome is blue route in chart at top18) and starts out as I illustrated in the beginning of the notes19) pretty much in a day or two, this will be settled12:06 AM ET 04-12-25, WHAT NOW?1) if you remember, our very first target for 4-11 high2) was 3250 area before getting moved up and down3) so what now? 4) we are in a liquidity crisis5) but gold has not completed its structure6) and it's blowing off vertically 7) because it doesn't have any time left8) so what finishes a blow off? 9) a blow off's blow off is my only idea here10) you have to look at the 5 year chart to get what I mean11) there are no logical moves here except wave completion 12) which means 300 more13) so? 14) 3500-355015) but the tops top must be the fastest16) so we go 300 from Tues night to Friday17) that means the top should be THIS COMING TUESDAY18) but this route requires breaking 3251 quickly and convincingly19) there cannot be stalling in this area20) why? 21) because price does not jump 10% in 3 days and then stall22) stalling would mean retest of 3165 and it would get very ugly soon after23) all these calls of gold to the sky...24) zoom out to 10 year chart, it's already AT THE SKY25) so be awareSunday, 4/13, 5:35 PM ET, I have really strong conviction that price has 2 weeks to top.1) the singular question here is how high 2) it's 3251-3607, favoring 3440-35703) the quickest top would be TODAY, followed by Tuesday4) if a top is not obvious by Tuesday 5) then the next date would be Sunday 4/276) the specific levels of this top are 3250, 3380, 3480, and 35807) with none being specifically favorable 8) we just go one by one9) so in 4 days we know if it's 3251 or HIGHER04/13/25, 9:09 PM ET, 3220.XX and I have it solved...a) there are two things going onb) first, there IS A LIQUIDITY PROBLEM, this we knowc) but size definitely matters d) second, this TOTAL bifurcation of U.S.-China tradee) is going to unleash gargantuan inflation globally, but no doubt concentration in USDf) and recession odds rises ALONG WITH A DISCUSSION OF HYPERINFLATIONg) so?h) THERE IS GOING TO BE A TOP BY 4/28i) but it's not THE topj) WHATEVER THE SELL OFF AFTER THAT MAYBEk) a while ago, when price broke straight through 2790...j) I had written about several different outcomesk) the VERY FIRST of which was 4900, or 46xx-51xxl) AT NO TIME DID I EVER TAKE IT SERIOUSLY m) because every time I raised targets above 3750-3850, it got shot downn) well now even UBS, Goldman, JP Morgan, the big banks all agreeo) there are two ceilings 4500 is on the table end of this year orp) beginning of 2026q) so?r) we are now in a new world, with hyperflation and liquidity breakss) so we WILL GET GIANT RALLIES t) but 2-way vol will also explodeu) meaning? 200-300 point swings is par for the course v) good luck!x) and oh yeah, a call for MAY 9TH high? y) 3600 on 5/09/25z) but that's ONLY HALF WAY ...9:57 PM ET... so my high ceiling for FEB 2026 was 5400 but let's call it right now..1) 5555 by valentines day 20262) this target solves all the patterns of this rally3) and more importantly, THE FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT IT11:40 PM ET, 04/13, let's wrap this up:1) so MAY 2 is NFP 2) and MAY 7 is FOMC3) so PRE-MAY 7 HIGH is capped 3420 because ....4) odds do not favor a super strong trend to crush both those events 5) what this means is that the big banks have it right 4500 end of year6) but my call of 5555 gets cut to 5000 by Valentine's Day 20267) that's a wrap OF EVERYTHING HERE PERIOD8) there's nothing more worth saying for me here or otherwise9) and why? 10) because GLD calls equivalence for 3800 pays barely 5:1 in January 202611) and gold is only 3232 as I type12) I would've thought that call would pay 100 to 200 to 113) that means NOBODY IS GETTING CAUGHT OFFGUARD14) have a good life04-15-25. 10:09 ET: LIQUIDITY WARNING THIRD SCENARIO1) there is a third scenario that currently is in play2) that starts with a move to under 2600 or less3) and then finishes the run to valentines day 20264) that would mean 2600 OR LESS BY 6.185) AND THEN...6) running to to 4600-48007) as the next rally 8) it's just not obvious when this run would actually finish9) this has to do with current sp500 and silver position 10) this is the most difficult route to call11) as the driver for price action would be la liquidity crisis 12) it would start would a gold move under 300013) I will add some notes soon to comment on this fluid situation14) the question is what matters more? 15) when u.s. China decouples completely?16) does the liquidity problems matter more?17) especially at the edge of recession?18) or the resulting hyperinflationary wave?19) when both can happen simultaneously04/15/25, 11:04 AM ET, so this morning I bought late June GC puts1) and my singular hard stop is 32522) while I work on this some4/15, 1:10 PM, in chart above, that's gold 4-day vs silver and s&p 500 for 6 monthsa) silver and spx are in the same pattern on different scalesb) why I do not know...c) but the only chart is strong is gold IF GOLD SURVIVES NEXT 76 hoursd) which is now to end of this Fridaye) I said earlier that my stop is on this new short is 3252f) well price has not move, but I need bears to close the door on the 3325 spike g) I'll add more when I have timeh) meanwhile:1) if it's gonna go, it has to go like that2) with the question marks for silver (red), if shouldn't be weaker 3) and for SP 500 (blue) as well4) I have a really hard time seeing gold saving the day here 5) it's bear curve is not quite as steep as I thought earlier but 6) not that much different:9:22 PM ET, 04.16.25, THIS I POSTED AT THE BEGINNING:1) so chart above vs...2) what happened in chart below3) so we took the long way to 3350 zone 4) bc that blue route had it several days faster5) so what now? 6) now comes the decision for WHICH TOP WE GET...7) the leading outcomes are 3770 and 48508) if we drop hard to 3100 from here9) then it's going to be 4850, but considering runaway zone 10) 4850 means 4800 to 510011) that means that the MOST BULLISH move here is....12) counterintuitive as a 250 pt drop13) meanwhile, continuing up from here means 3570-377014) probably favoring the high end close to 380015) meanwhile, the current MAY high is 358516) with RIDICULOUS 2-WAY VOL17) but the next move should be rollover down 18) silver and spx still looks like it wants to die19) gold just doesn't care YET...20) but if spx retests the previous floor21) gold may have to check 3070 before 358522) 11:30 PM I get how to explain this23) there are two versions of this top24) a 3600 top and a 4800 top25) if 3600 is THE TOP, then ...26) 3200 must hold the retrace and April must see 345027) then 3600 would come in May28) the other scenario involves a retrace of 29) 250-300 points and sideways for 50-60 days before moving for 480010:04 AM ET 04-17-25, This is last chart I posted for coming time frame w/in 36 hours:1) the route closest to current trends IS SOME VERSION OF BLUE...2) as a setup for 4725 high3) I am working on it with spare time5:13 AM, 4/21, I don't have anything to add because I haven't had any time.1) here is what I can say2) sp 500 is still following bearish outcome3) silver is not moving meaningfully and has diverged with gold 4) in a BIG way5) and past 3420, the only level to watch is 3585-36106) but going there next ..like next couple of days 7) is going to create a giant question mark for 8) where EVERYTHING is headed nextAND THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS #12B: