Technical analysis by mugi_multiplier about Symbol BTC: Sell recommendation (3/9/2025)

Hello folks. I am a day trader focused only on bitcoin trading. I will explain my view on bitcoin's price movements in upcoming up to 1 to 2 years. I will only post this idea and probably will not post anything ever again (Unless many people request me to do so). Enjoy the roller coaster ride in the upcoming months.Fundamental Analysis:As of today, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at approximately $1.7 trillion, while gold’s market cap is around $19.6 trillion. This places Bitcoin at roughly 9% of the market cap of gold. Given that Bitcoin has only existed for 17 years, compared to gold's history spanning millennia, this is a relatively high figure for such a nascent asset. As a result, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of its journey and requires more time to close the gap, potentially achieving at least half of gold's market cap in the future.Institutional involvement in Bitcoin is steadily increasing, ensuring that the value of Bitcoin will not approach zero as long as they hold. Many institutions have been accumulating large quantities of Bitcoin in the $16,000-$25,000 range, with volume data supporting this. This accumulation is why the CME gap tends to fill itself, as these institutions have the capital to influence market movements. The focus has now shifted to even larger players, such as BlackRock and various government entities, which are beginning to take an interest in Bitcoin. This involvement could drive substantial growth in the long term—though not before one final market correction.Technical Analysis:Bitcoin has formed a significant double top pattern over the course of the last 105 days, breaking below the key market structure level of $92,500. This technical development strongly suggests that a market reversal is underway, and it could mark the beginning of a broader downtrend.The price action from December 2017 to December 2021 closely mirrors the price action from December 2021 to the present. One cycle features a lower high, while the other sees a higher high, but both ultimately end with similar outcomes. A closer examination of the monthly chart will reveal this pattern, which signals the potential for one last opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at lower price levels before an upward movement commences. This could represent a once-in-a-lifetime chance to purchase Bitcoin at these prices.There is a notable volume gap in the $69,000-$90,000 range (sometimes referred to as "no man’s land"). Historically, price movements in such gaps tend to fill over time. We can expect significant price fluctuations within this range, potentially extending to $105,000 before we reach our targeted price point.Investment Strategy:If Bitcoin’s price reaches the range of $16,000-$32,000, start dollar cost average buying it. At these levels, it could easily result in 10x-20x returns over the long term. This is an ideal time to consider allocating significant portions of retirement funds, such as your 401(k) or superannuation, into Bitcoin, as the potential for substantial growth is immense.The Truth Hurts:As difficult as it may be to accept, the current market may not offer the returns many investors are hoping for in the short term. The painful reality is that Bitcoin is likely entering a bear market phase before another major uptrend. However, for those who can stomach the volatility and plan for the long term, this could be one of the best opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at historically low levels.Long-Term Bullish Outlook:While the current market presents challenges, I remain a long-term bull on Bitcoin. I firmly believe that, over the years to come, Bitcoin will continue to appreciate in value as it matures, especially as institutional adoption increases and it solidifies its place as a hedge against traditional assets. This short-term correction will pass, and the long-term trajectory for Bitcoin remains extremely promising.At present, I am not considering any long-term investments at the current price levels. Instead, I will focus on active day trading until the price reaches my desired range of $16,000-$32,000.Additional Considerations:As Bitcoin's price declines, expect a wave of predictions suggesting extreme price points. It is essential to remain calm, patient, and focused on dollar-cost averaging within the range of $16,000-$32,000.Halving events, while historically significant, may not have as strong an impact on Bitcoin's price going forward due to the fact that 94.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply has already been mined and is in circulation.The traditional four-year market cycles may no longer apply. Future market cycles could either be shorter or significantly elongated, depending on a variety of factors including institutional involvement and macroeconomic conditions.