Fundamental analysis by بورس اتومات about Stock شاملا on 7/10/2024
Should we buy gold or "golden stocks"? About a year ago, the concept of dollar yield was mentioned in Tehran Stock Exchange. This concept is not something new, but it is still not well received among the investors of our market. The general public buys dollars or gold in order to protect their capital against inflation, but getting an excess return on the growth of the dollar, which makes your investment desirable, is the subject of this article. Zero dollar return?! In the example of buying gold or gold coins inside the country, if the world gold price is at the same current levels in the next year, there is a very high probability that even in buying gold, you will have earned a profit of rials, just as much as the growth of the dollar rate, similar to converting your capital into dollars. This means that your current thousand dollars will be the same thousand dollars next year at the same time under the mentioned conditions (now, if the dollar is now about 60 thousand tomans, this thousand dollars is 60 million tomans, and next year at this time if the dollar is 75 thousand tomans, your thousand dollars will be 75 million tomans ). But our question is how to convert this thousand dollars into two thousand dollars. Waiting for exceptional events to reach two thousand dollars If you buy dollars, it is clear that this thousand dollars will not change by simply keeping "dollars". If you buy gold, the dollar value of your gold will probably increase as much as the global price of gold. That is, in order for your thousand dollars to be converted to $2,000, the price of gold in the world must double, which means that an ounce of gold, which is currently fluctuating around $2,400, must reach about $4,800,000 for you to make such a profit. The probability of this scenario is not zero, but it is one of the exceptional scenarios with a low probability of occurrence, but there is a more attractive option. What is "Golden Stock"? What we mean here by "golden shares" are the shares of companies that extract and produce gold (such as Pars Tamin Tassico). You can turn your $1,000 into $2,000 much faster by owning shares of such companies than in other scenarios. If the average price of gold in the world grows by 100 dollars a year in the next 5 years, at the end of the fifth year, by investing in a gold mine similar to Pars Tamim with a production capacity of 1,000 kilograms, and taking cash profits and reinvesting them in the same stocks, you will have 2,000 Dollar receipt. Pars Tamin can probably reach 500 kilos to 1000 kilos of gold in the next one year, and according to the grade of ore and the assumed price to revenue of 7, calculations show that such a dream scenario is available. Now, if gold doubles (the second scenario where your $1,000 would be two thousand dollars), how much would your money double in 5 years with Pars Tamin? The example of gold shares is due to the obvious interest of us Iranians in buying gold for specific reasons, and more importantly, it is possible to explain the dollar profit more easily by buying shares. P.N.: The author is interested in Tasiko shares and other related shares such as Kafra. P.N.: In order to simplify, additional explanation and further description of the subject has been avoided. P.N.: The reserve amount of the mentioned gold mine is one of the most important points that should be taken into consideration. Pars Tamin has an interesting mineral reserve, which has been clarified in the financial statement, and there are more interesting rumors about the increase in the amount of mineral reserves. If a company's gold mineral reserve is limited to a few years and months, one should be very careful about buying this company's shares, and the exact opposite of the attractive scenario may happen. P.N.: Other stocks in Tasiko's portfolio, such as Femli, Foulad, Shamla, Kafra, and others, have not only reduced the attractiveness of this company, but have also added to the attractiveness of the company's portfolio. slow down more It is not bad to have a look at Tasiko's portfolio. @bourse_automation
