تحليل التحليل الفني dgfacpe حول PAXG في رمز في 10‏/12‏/2025

On Wednesday (December 10th) in early Asian trading, gold traded in a narrow range, currently hovering around $4200. The market widely expects a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, attracting bargain hunters and supporting gold prices. However, better-than-expected US job openings data released on Tuesday, coupled with a continued rebound in the US dollar index and a three-month high in US Treasury yields, has made gold bulls hesitant. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to close at 99.21, strengthening for two consecutive trading days. This put some pressure on gold, as a stronger dollar typically diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated gold. Ahead of the Fed's decision, the gold market is trading cautiously, with investors focusing on the Fed's dot plot and Powell's press conference, as well as news regarding Fed candidates. However, from a broader perspective, this employment data has not completely extinguished expectations of a rate cut. On the contrary, it has strengthened the possibility of a "hawkish rate cut" by the Fed, namely, acknowledging a strong economy while implementing precautionary easing. A rate cut is almost a certainty, but Powell may attempt to set a higher threshold for further action. This means gold may face challenges from a strong dollar in the short term, but in the medium to long term, if inflationary pressures ease, gold will still benefit from a low-interest-rate environment. Investors need to closely monitor the interaction between data and policy to avoid blindly chasing the rally. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is always a crucial indicator for the gold market. The two-day FOMC meeting will end on December 10th, with market traders generally betting on a 25 basis point rate cut this week, with a probability as high as 87.4%. This optimistic expectation attracts bargain hunting to support gold prices, as rate cuts typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, driving funds into the precious metals sector. On the eve of the meeting, spot gold steadily climbed from its intraday low, ultimately closing slightly higher, reflecting investors' eager anticipation of easing policies. However, this rate cut may not be a simple dovish signal. Market analysts point out that Powell may emphasize inflation risks in his statement and set a higher threshold for subsequent easing measures. This possibility of a "hawkish rate cut" stems from the resilience of the US economy. Despite the government shutdown causing delays in some data releases, overall economic indicators showed a robust labor market, making the Federal Reserve more cautious in easing policy. Gold's rise has not been smooth sailing, but rather accompanied by weighing of future uncertainties. Investors need to be wary of short-term volatility from policy statements. Investors also need to pay attention to the potential impact of Powell's successor, Hassett, and Trump's dovish expectations add uncertainty. Overall, gold still has room to rise in the easing cycle, but caution is needed regarding variables in inflation and employment data. December 10th Gold Price Analysis: Gold retreated in the morning on Tuesday, testing the 4170 level before rebounding. Recent price action has been volatile, with strong but discontinuous movement, typical of a range-bound market. Tonight at 3 AM, the final interest rate decision of the year will be announced, and market expectations for a rate cut are rising. So, how should one position gold today? With the Fed's interest rate decision looming, gold is likely to continue its range-bound movement. From a technical perspective, gold prices rebounded strongly after finding support near the lower edge of the $4170-$4165 range, validating the previous market analysis's assessment that "short-term price action will likely involve range-bound consolidation." On the daily chart, gold prices have firmly established themselves above the key psychological level of $4200, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. Today's trading can be divided into two sessions: the Asian session and the US session. During the Asian session, market sentiment is generally optimistic, and gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend. Any technical pullbacks could present buying opportunities, with support levels at $4185 and $4190. The upper resistance levels are at 4220 and 4245. On the 1-hour chart, gold still faces short-term resistance above the 4220 area, with support around 4190. Tuesday's rise in gold may have raised the lower support level, meaning it may not necessarily reach 4180; support at 4190 could allow it to continue rising. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, it will likely continue to fluctuate within this range. In the Asian session, gold is expected to continue its pullback under pressure above 4220. If it stabilizes above 4190, a short-term rebound is possible. It's worth noting that the precious metals market has already fully priced in the Fed's rate cut expectations. Investors should be wary of the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading risk. If Powell releases hawkish signals or hints at a slower pace of future rate cuts, it could trigger short-term profit-taking in gold and silver. Conversely, if the policy statement emphasizes downside risks to the economy or mentions expanding the scope for easing policies, it will further boost precious metal prices. Investors are advised to remain cautious before the data release, manage their positions reasonably, and wait for the market direction to become clearer before taking action.