تحليل التحليل الفني David_financial_analyst حول PAXG في رمز في 10‏/6‏/2025

On Tuesday (June 10), spot gold rebounded slightly from around 3,300 during the session, and maintained a sideways consolidation pattern in the European session, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. Traders focused on the second day of high-level talks between major economies in London, waiting for more clear signals to determine the direction of the next stage. At the same time, the strong non-farm data in the United States last week pushed the dollar to rebound, suppressing gold prices. However, the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the future, and the escalation of the geopolitical situation has provided some support for gold. . .Fundamental analysis: 👇👇👇👉The current trend of gold is constrained by multiple macro factors. On the one hand, the strong US non-farm payrolls data reduced the probability of the Fed's immediate interest rate cut this year, boosting the US dollar in the short term and suppressing non-yielding assets such as gold. At the same time, as the US Treasury yields rebounded in stages, it also put pressure on gold prices.👉On the other hand, the market still holds strong expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently expect the probability of a rate cut in September to be close to 60%. In addition, the poor fiscal situation and expanding deficits in the United States still cause long-term inflation concerns in the market, increasing the demand for gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties.👉In terms of geopolitics, Reuters reported that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine once again ignited market risk aversion, which also limited the downward space of gold prices to a certain extent.Technical side: 👇👇👇👉From the daily chart, spot gold is currently maintaining a consolidation near the middle track of the Bollinger band. The narrowing of the Bollinger channel shows that the market volatility continues to compress, and the market has entered a "Bollinger band squeeze" state, suggesting that the window for a change is approaching.👉The K-line combination is characterized by a continuous small real candlestick line, with a gradually narrowing volatility, a typical sideways pattern, and the price repeatedly saws around 3330. The Bollinger middle rail (3307.22) provides some support, and the Bollinger upper and lower rails are located at 3424.72 and 3189.73 respectively, forming a short-term range.👉The key support level can be seen at the 3250 mark, which corresponds to the previous consolidation platform and the structure below the Bollinger middle rail. If it falls below, it may trigger a further decline to the 3189 area. The upper resistance is concentrated at 3380 and 3425. The latter is the overlapping area of ​​the Bollinger upper rail and the previous high. If it breaks through, it is expected to open up room for growth.👉In terms of MACD indicators, DIFF and DEA continue to stick together, and the histogram oscillates close to the zero axis. There is a lack of momentum guidance, and the trend is not clear yet. The RSI indicator hovers around 53, which is also in a neutral to strong area, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached extremes.👉Overall, gold is in a typical "consolidation market", and traders are concerned about whether the direction selection is triggered by news.Market sentiment observation: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩The market is currently in a state of high alert, with technical graphics and fundamentals forming an intertwined influence. On the one hand, traders still have hope for the future path of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which makes bargain-hunting buying power still exist; on the other hand, the strong performance of non-agricultural data has caused some funds to wait and see, waiting for two key inflation data, CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, to judge the Fed's policy trends.In addition, the steady performance of risk assets has limited the large inflow of safe-haven funds into gold. Risk preference and risk aversion are intertwined, making gold lack clear trend momentum in the short term.Outlook for the future: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩Short-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the short term, gold may continue to maintain a consolidation structure, and the market will wait for the results of inflation data to be oriented again. Analysts believe that if CPI weakens and the Fed's expectations of rate cuts increase, gold prices may break through the 3380 line; if the data is strong, we need to be wary of a retracement below the Bollinger middle track to the 3250 area.Medium- and long-term outlook: 👇👇👇🤩🤩🤩In the medium and long term, analysts believe that gold still has the macro logic of buying low and deploying medium-term long positions against the backdrop of the Fed's expectations of an easing cycle and the failure of US fiscal pressure to substantially ease. The continued escalation of geopolitics also constitutes medium-term support, but traders are wary of the linkage between US bond yields and the US dollar index. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD