30.12.2025 tarihinde sembol PAXG hakkında Teknik David_Thompson_9 analizi

Spot gold prices rose and then fell back before stabilizing, trading around the core range of $4,400 per ounce during the North American session. On the daily chart, after the price surged to a high of $4,549.69 per ounce, it triggered a margin-driven deleveraging fluctuation, quickly retreating to the key support level of $4,300.00 per ounce where it found support. Currently, it has entered a rebalancing phase of "volatility digestion + waiting for catalysts". I. Fundamentals: Core Support Remains Unchanged; Short-Term Fluctuations Originate from Microstructure The medium- to long-term pricing anchor for spot gold remains focused on the dual themes of real interest rates and safe-haven demand, with solid fundamental support: 1. Expectations of declining real interest rates dominate allocation demand: Market pricing in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is driving the combination of nominal interest rates and inflation expectations towards lowering the central level of real interest rates. As a typical non-interest-bearing asset, the declining cost of holding gold will enhance its attractiveness, especially during periods of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, when gold's "universal collateral for risk hedging" attribute makes it more attractive to investors. 2. Geopolitical risk premium continues to support the economy: The repeated escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased tail risks, driving funds to migrate to assets with high liquidity and strong safe-haven attributes. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, naturally benefits from this trend. It should be clarified that the recent pullback is due to amplified volatility caused by micro-structural factors, rather than a reversal of fundamental logic: the increase in margin requirements for precious metal contracts led to an increase in the capital required for leveraged funds, triggering concentrated reductions in positions and passive liquidation, resulting in a sharp drop in the form of "squeeze in the same direction". The typical characteristics of this type of fluctuation are fast pace and emotion-driven. Unless there is a systemic upward revision of macroeconomic expectations, such as a significant increase in real interest rates, prices are likely to be repriced at key support levels. The next key catalyst comes from the policy expectation calibration of the Fed meeting minutes: if the expectation of an easing path is strengthened, the decline in dollar interest rates will provide upward momentum for gold; if the emphasis is on inflation stickiness and policy patience, gold may continue to fluctuate at high levels to digest crowded positions. II. Technical Analysis: Key Support Remains Effective, Bullish/Bearish Dividing Line Shifts Upward. On the daily chart, gold has shown a clear upward trend and a step-like upward pattern since November, with each pullback finding support in the previous high-volume trading area. After encountering resistance at $4,549.69/oz, the price experienced a wide pullback, hitting a low of $4,300.00/oz before quickly recovering some of the losses. This confirms that the price level is not only a psychological barrier but also a core defensive position for structural bulls. The current price has stabilized above $4,360/ounce, meaning that the short-term bullish/bearish dividing line has shifted to this area: stabilizing above this level would constitute a continuation of the trend after a period of consolidation at higher levels; a break below this level could trigger a "second deleveraging" risk, returning the price to a wide-range oscillation pattern. The indicators suggest a consolidation within a strong trend: the MACD indicator DIFF is 79.89, DEA is 77.12, and the MACD histogram is 5.54, all of which are in the bullish zone above the zero axis. The convergence of the histogram suggests that the upward momentum is cooling down at a high level, but it is not a trend reversal signal; the RSI (14) has fallen back to 59.33, and the overbought pressure has been released, clearing the way for the continuation of the trend. Key levels to watch: The upside resistance is concentrated in the $4500-$4549.69/oz resistance zone. A breakout and hold above this level with significant volume could signal a return to accelerated growth. Downside support is initially seen at $4360/oz, followed by the key support level of $4300.00/oz. A breach of this level would indicate a deep pullback and correction in the daily chart structure. III. Bullish and Bearish Outlook: Focusing on Core Variables and Seizing Structural Opportunities Bullish Logic: If the US dollar interest rate continues to decline and real interest rates continue to fall, coupled with the maintenance of geopolitical risk premiums, gold will continue its structural characteristics of "controllable pullbacks and buying on dips". From a technical perspective, as long as the support at $4360/oz is effectively confirmed, the upside will retest $4500/oz, and then challenge the previous high of $4549.69/oz. A break above this level would open up further upside potential. The release of overbought pressure from the RSI also makes the trend more likely to continue. Short-selling risks: ① The restructuring of policy expectations leads to a sustained upward revision of real interest rates, weakening the advantage of gold as a non-yielding asset, and the market may shift from a trending market to a long-term consolidation; ② Liquidity contraction or margin adjustments trigger a second round of passive selling, and a breach of $4,300.00/ounce will trigger a larger-scale pullback and increased volatility. Conclusion: Gold is currently in a key consolidation zone around $4,400/oz. In the short term, the key focus is on the effectiveness of the $4,360/oz support level and the strength of any upward correction. In the medium term, the key focus is on whether the resonance logic between real interest rates and safe-haven premiums will continue. XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD